CPI in May fell below expectations across the board, Trump once again called for a 100 basis point cut

On June 12, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.47. On Wednesday, the US dollar index plunged in the session and finally closed down 0.41% at 98.638 as a www.avaforexcn.comprehensive lower than expected CPI data boosted market rate cut expectations. The yield on the US Treasury fell sharply across the board, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury closing at 4.427%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield falling below the 4% mark, closing at 3.956%. Spot gold rose in the short term and hit the $3360 mark after the CPI was announced, and then quickly gave up its gains. However, it rose again in the late trading due to the sharp rise in the Middle East situation, and finally closed up 0.98% to close at $3355.13/ounce; spot silver pulled back for the second consecutive day, finally closing down 0.77% to $36.25/ounce. International crude oil soared as Trump said he was "not confident" in nuclear talks with Iran, and the United States was preparing to reduce the size of its mission to Iraq due to security concerns. WTI crude oil continued to rise, finally closing up 4.2% to $67.18 per barrel, a new high in more than two months; Brent crude oil closed up 4.11% to $69.46 per barrel.

Main currency trendswww.avaforexcn.comAnalysis

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.47. Affected by moderate inflation data, the US dollar index fell 0.4% on Wednesday, and fell to 98.42 in the early trading session on Thursday, a new low in the past week, approaching the upward trend.The six-week low of 98.35 was not far from the week. Technically, if the US dollar index closes below the 98.50 level, it will move towards a support level in the 98.00–98.20 range.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1505. The euro/dollar surged sharply in the North American period, but it still did not break the 1.1500 mark after the U.S. (US) released a lower-than-expected inflation report, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs in the short term. Meanwhile, in the Eurozone (EU), European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers made headlines, despite their failure to push the euro/dollar pair. Technically, if this attempt is successful, the EUR/USD will move towards the resistance level in the range of 1.1555–1.1570.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3572. The GBP/USD received some bullish tailwinds on Wednesday, erasing the gains from the previous trading day and climbing back to the 1.3550 level. Lower-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data from the initial tariff reference period strengthens investors' hopes of a Fed rate cut later this year, while U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) business-level inflation data will follow on Thursday. Technically, breaking through the 1.3550 level will open up the way to test the resistance level of 1.3620–1.3640.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Thursday, gold trading around 3367.05. This wave of rally is not only boosted by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, but is also closely related to the sharp rise in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Investor expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the risk of possible conflict in the Middle East are jointly driving a surge in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Technical: Since the gold price fell last week's high of $3,400, it has formed an A-B-C correction wave structure. The current price hovers around $3335, with the above $3345 resistance (June 10 high) suppressing significantly. The 4-hour chart shows that the RSI indicator hovers at a neutral level of 50, suggesting insufficient momentum. If the price exceeds $3345, it may test the pressure of the reverse trend line of $3375; otherwise, if the price falls below $3290 (June 9The daily low) will further fall into the support range of US$3,245 (multiple highs and lows coincide with each other in mid-May).

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Thursday, crude oil trading around 67.14. Oil prices rose more than 4% on Wednesday, reaching their highest point in more than two months after news that the United States is preparing to evacuate the Iraqi embassy due to intensified security issues in the Middle East.

Technical: Supported by geopolitical tensions, easing trade concerns and stable demand fundamentals, the crude oil outlook remains bullish, provided that WTI can close above $66.45. If a breakthrough is confirmed, it may attract new buying and push the price towards the $68 mark. However, if the current increase cannot be maintained, oil prices may fall back to the $63 range.

Forex market trading reminder on June 12, 2025

①14:00UK's three-month GDP monthly rate in April

②14:00UK's April manufacturing output monthly rate

③14:00UK's April seasonally adjusted www.avaforexcn.commodity trade account

④14:00UK's April industrial output monthly rate

⑤20:30UK's initial unemployment benefits in the week from the United States to June 7

⑥20:30UK's May PPI annual rate< /p>

⑦20:30 US May PPI monthly rate

⑧22:30 US to June 6 EIA natural gas inventory

⑨The next day at 00:00 US dollars released its quarterly financial account report

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