Eurozone Treasury bond yields rise, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on June 17

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, Dow futures fell 0.60%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.58%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.62%. The German DAX index fell 1.24%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.46%, the French CAC40 index fell 1.07%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 1.31%.

2. Market news interpretation

European Treasury bond yields rose, and the Middle East conflict caused uncertainty

⑴European Treasury bond yields rose slightly on Tuesday (June 17), due to the high uncertainty in the outcome of the Middle East conflict. ⑵ Investors are still waiting for the results of the Fed's policy meeting later this week. ⑶ US President Trump expressed his hope that there would be a "real solution" to the Iran nuclear issue and hinted that senior US officials might be sent to contact Iran, and the Israeli air battle with Iran has entered its fifth day. ⑷ Germany's 10-year government bond yield (eurozone benchmark) rose 1 basis point to 2.54%, and the 2-year government bond yield rose 1 basis point to 1.85%. ⑸OstrumAM chief economist Philip Wackert said that the way of resolving the conflict will have a significant impact, but the market has not yet experienced significant fluctuations. ⑹ He pointed out that oil prices have not exceeded the level at the beginning of the year, and there are reports that Saudi Arabia may increase its oil supply. ⑺The International Energy Agency said on Tuesday that the global oil market was well supplied without major disruption. ⑻Brent crude oil futures fell sharply the day beforeAfter the decline, it rose more than 1.5% on Tuesday. ⑼ Market expectations for the ECB rate cut have dropped slightly, with the ECB deposit facility rate expected to be 1.78% in December, up from 1.75% last week. ⑽German investor sentiment rose unexpectedly in June, the ZEW Economic Research Institute said on Tuesday. ⑾The Fed began its two-day meeting on Tuesday, facing the risk of a shock to new www.avaforexcn.commodity prices, while U.S. retail sales and factory output data in May are expected to show weak economic results. ⑿ Italian government bonds performed slightly worse than German government bonds, with the 10-year Italian government bond yield rising 2.5 basis points to 3.51%, and the yield difference with German government bonds was 96 basis points, reaching 84.20 basis points last week, the lowest since March 2015.

German investors' optimism has limited impact on the euro

⑴ On Tuesday (June 17), Germany's ZEW economic prosperity index rose to 47.5 in June, far exceeding market expectations. ⑵ This result is significantly higher than the median predicted value of 35.0 and is higher than all predicted values ​​in the Reuters survey. ⑶The highest forecast for this survey is 45.1 and the lowest is 15.0. ⑷ After the data was released, the euro/USD rose from the opening price of 1.1557 to the intraday high of 1.1572. ⑸ Traders have previously bet on the euro's rise, so this result is not surprising.

The benchmark price of the Middle East crude oil has risen, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified

⑴ The benchmark price of the Middle East crude oil has risen on Tuesday (June 17), as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have triggered market concerns about oil supply. ⑵ Traders said they are engaging in caution as escalating regional conflicts may lead to a premium on war in goods. About one-fifth of global oil consumption needs to be transported through the strait. ⑶ UAE Coast Guard said on Tuesday that 24 people on board were evacuated after the collision of the tanker Adaline in the Gulf of Oman (near the Strait of Hormuz). ⑷ The International Energy Agency said that although China's oil imports will peak in 2027, global oil demand will continue until the end of the century, as consumption is supported by falling gasoline prices in the United States and slowing down the popularity of electric vehicles. ⑸ Cash Dubai crude oil premium to swaps rose 33 cents to $2.40 a barrel. Vitor will deliver a batch of August Omani crude oil to Total Energy. ⑹ Oil futures rose on Tuesday, analysts said uncertainty would push up prices even though the conflict between Iran and Israel has not yet caused production losses. ⑺ Electronic interference in www.avaforexcn.commercial ship navigation systems in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Gulf region has recently surged, affecting ship navigation in the region. ⑻Petrobras announced on Monday that it has signed a contract worth approximately 4.9 billion reais (about 892.3 million US dollars) to www.avaforexcn.complete the new refining plant at its RNEST refinery.

European Stability Mechanism Issued 6-month notes

⑴ On Tuesday (June 17), the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) issued 1.097 billion euros of 6-month notes through the German Central Bank (Deutsche Federal Bank). ⑵The average yield of this issuance is 1.947%. ⑶AcknowledgeThe purchase multiple is 2.3, indicating that the market demand for this short-term note is relatively positive.

Trump pressure on the Fed may backfire

⑴ On Tuesday (June 17), Mike Dolan pointed out that although the Fed may think there is a chance to resume interest rate cuts, Trump's continued political pressure may make him hesitate. ⑵ The Fed's key concern at the moment is that markets, businesses and families may not believe they have the ability or have sufficient political support to www.avaforexcn.completely eliminate inflationary pressures and stabilize inflation expectations at the target level of 2%. ⑶ The rate cut this week may cause markets to suspect that it was taken under pressure from the White House, especially the futures market has not yet expected another rate cut by September. ⑷ Trump's calls for a sharp rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased almost every week or even daily, and political pressure is still rising despite his claim that he will not fire Fed Chairman Powell. ⑸ The Federal Reserve emphasized its policy independence, and Powell did not discuss interest rate plans with Trump, but Trump's hints about Powell's successor and "possible action" have exacerbated market uncertainty. ⑹ Trade conflicts may push up import prices, and the conflict between Israel and Iran may also lead to rising global energy prices, which makes the Federal Reserve's decisions more www.avaforexcn.complicated. ⑺The U.S. inflation expectations remain high, consumers' inflation expectations for the next five years are between 2.6% and 4.1%, and the market's inflation expectations for the next five years are between 2.3% and 2.5%. ⑻The Fed has not convinced households and financial markets that it can stabilize inflation at its target level in the medium term, so even if there is reason to cut interest rates, the Fed may choose to remain silent due to fears of being seen as succumbing to political pressure. ⑼The independence and credibility of the Federal Reserve are more important than the timing of any policy adjustment, and Philadelphia Fed Chairman Huck said this month that monetary policy decisions must be protected from external interference. ⑽ Although the Supreme Court ruling seems to protect the Fed's independence, some scholars still point out that the ruling lacks legal basis and that the Fed may need to maintain policy stability longer than expected to prove its independence.

Israel prohibits disclosure of missile landing information

Israel's missile incoming warnings usually sound about 10 to 15 minutes before Iranian missiles arrive in Israel, but in the early morning of today (June 17), it was only about three minutes ahead of schedule. It is understood that this is because monitoring sporadic missiles is more difficult than monitoring dozens of missiles. And sporadic missile attacks like Iran are likely to be a technology. First, it increases the difficulty of Israeli military early warning and interception, and second, it puts psychological pressure on Israel. Another noteworthy point is that the Israeli side has taken control actions against foreign media that broadcast missile attacks in Israel, especially showing the missile landing points. Israel said the relevant shooting will help improve the accuracy of Iranian missiles and endanger Israel's national security. Therefore, in the early morning of the 17th, many international media were forced to interrupt the live broadcast signal in Tel Aviv.

Bank of Japan adjusts the pace of bond shrinking volume

⑴ On Tuesday (June 17), the Bank of Japan announced that it willSlow down the reduction in Treasury bond purchases from April 2026, while maintaining the short-term policy interest rate at 0.5%. ⑵After ending a decade-long monetary easing policy in March 2024, the Bank of Japan has reduced monthly bond purchases by 400 billion yen per quarter. ⑶ Starting from April 2026, the reduction will be cut by half to 200 billion yen per quarter. ⑷ Although the Bank of Japan is gradually reducing bond purchases, if market interest rates soar, it still retains the flexibility to increase bond purchases. ⑸ In addition, the Bank of Japan plans to conduct a policy assessment in June 2026 to determine the bond purchase strategy after April 2027.

Bank of Japan adjusts its bond reduction plan

On June 17, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to keep the short-term policy interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, and plans to slow down the pace of bond reduction in fiscal year 2026. Governor Kazuo Ueda pointed out that uncertainty in U.S. trade policy and tensions in the Middle East pose greater downward risks to Japan's economy and prices, suggesting that the central bank will not rush to raise interest rates again. BOJ keeps its existing bond reduction plan unchanged, that is, to reduce the monthly purchase of treasury bonds by 400 billion yen by March 2026. But starting from the 2026 fiscal year, the quarterly reduction will be halved, and monthly purchases will drop to about 2 trillion yen by March 2027. This adjustment is intended to reduce the impact on the market while coping with fluctuations in long-term Treasury yields. BOJ will also conduct an interim assessment of the bond reduction plan for fiscal year 2026 at its June 2026 policy meeting.

Turkey Ministry of Finance Bond Issuance News

On June 17, the Turkish Ministry of Finance sold a total of 17 billion liras for the lira reference index bonds due on June 13, 2029 in non-competitive bids before the bond issuance, with a total bid amount of 28.332 billion liras, of which 2.5 billion liras were sold to state institutions. At the same time, for fixed coupon bonds due on September 27, 2034, the Ministry of Finance sold 6.5 billion lira, with a total bid amount of 12.129 billion lira, and this time it was not sold to state institutions.

Strait of Hormuz ship collision

On June 17, the UAE Coast Guard successfully evacuated 24 crew members near the Strait of Hormuz, after two ships collided in the area. British maritime security agency Ambrey pointed out that the accident has nothing to do with safety. Research firm Kpler mentioned that since the conflict between Israel and Iran, the navigation systems of some crude oil transport ships have encountered electronic interference, but no collision was found to be related to excessive signal transmission. The crew has been safely transferred to Harvekan Port of UAE.

Germany plans to restart the issuance of 7-year bonds

On June 17, 2025, 16:58 Beijing time, Dimmer, member of the Executive Board of the German Financial Agency, said that Germany will reissue 7-year bonds in the second half of this year. Previously, Germany had decided to adjust its strict debt restrictions to increase infrastructure and defense spending, a move seen as a potential change in the European economic landscapeOne step to go. Meanwhile, the EU is also driving wider growth in defense spending, planning to borrow up to 150 billion euros in the bond market to provide member states with defence project loans.

UK inflation data may trigger the central bank's dovish resolution The risk of pound being under pressure increased

⑴ On June 17, analysts pointed out that if the UK's CPI year-on-year increase in May was lower than the expected 3.4%, the possibility of the Bank of England maintaining interest rates unchanged at this week's meeting but sending dovish signals will increase significantly. ⑵ Data shows that UK inflation jumped to a 15-month high of 3.5% in April, while the service industry CPI is expected to fall from 5.4% to 4.8% in May. If the data is weak, the central bank's deputy governor Ramsden may join the two www.avaforexcn.committee members to support the immediate rate cut. ⑶ Extreme dovish decisions may lead to a decline in the pound as the market may raise its expectations for a rate cut this year from two to three. In the week ending June 10, CFTC's net long positions surged 50% to 51,634, a seven-month high.

South Korea-US trade negotiations are expected to accelerate in the next few weekshttps://www.avaforexcn.comThe government seeks fair www.avaforexcn.competition in tariffs

⑴ On June 17, South Korea's Minister of Industry, Trade and Resources Lyu Han-gow said that with the new government taking office, trade negotiations between South Korea and the United States will accelerate in the next few weeks. The negotiations have been slowed due to domestic political turmoil. ⑵ South Korea currently faces a 10% benchmark tariff from the United States, and the additional 25% tariff on South Korea is suspended for 90 days. The two sides reached a consensus at the end of April and planned to reach a tax reduction agreement before July 8. ⑶ New President Lee Jae-ming stressed that it is necessary to ensure that South Korean www.avaforexcn.companies are not inferior to www.avaforexcn.competitors in terms of tariffs. After taking office, he has changed his position of "not rushing to reach an agreement" during the campaign period. He originally planned to meet with US President Trump during the G7 summit on the 17th, but was cancelled due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East. ⑷ The industry is concerned that the US tariff policies on www.avaforexcn.competitors such as Japan will directly affect key industries such as South Korea's chips, batteries, and automobiles. Kim Yongzhen, a professor of business at Seoul University, pointed out: "The horizontal www.avaforexcn.comparison of tariff levels is crucial."

The Iranian military announced a new round of large-scale attacks on Israel

⑴ On June 17, Iranian Army ground forces www.avaforexcn.commander Kiomars Hydari said that the Iranian armed forces launched a new round of fierce attacks on Israel within the past 24 hours. ⑵ The Islamic Republic of Iran reported that the Iranian military used hundreds of long-range drones with precise positioning capabilities to destroy weapons and equipment and strategic locations in Tel Aviv and Haifa, Israel. ⑶Hedari emphasized that the attack used new advanced weapons and said that the attack will be further strengthened in the next few hours.

3. The trend of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:27 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1572, an increase of 0.10%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (EUR versus USD) price remained calm at the most recent day-intraday level, stabilizing above the 1.1550 level, providing positive action in the case of a major bullish trend dominant in the short term and trading along a slash, with positive pressure from trading above EMA50, and in addition, positive overlapping signals appearing on the aftermath (RSI), which increases the positive pressure around the price.

GBP/USD: As of 20:27 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3570, a drop of 0.04%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price fell on its last trading day, which was affected by the stability of the 1.3600 key and stubborn resistance level, which formed a barrier to continued rise and pushed the price to take a breath.

Spot gold: As of 20:27 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3387.66, an increase of 0.07%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, after reaching oversold levels, the price of (gold) rose on the last trading day, supported by positive signals from (RSI), bull correction trends dominate on a short-term basis and traded along a slash. In addition, the dynamic support represented by its exchange above the EMA50 continues to exist, strengthening the opportunity for recovery and another rise.

Spot silver: As of 20:27 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 36.954, an increase of 1.83%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price surged on the last trading day to reach our target resistance of $37.00, supported by its ongoing trading above the EMA50 and dominated by the main bullish trend, as well as trading along a small slash on a short-term basis, positive signals on the (RSI), despite reaching overbought levels.

Crude oil market: As of 20:27 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 71.690, an increase of 2.05%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (crude oil) prices rose in recent intraday trading, stabilizing above the $70.00 support, with a major bullish trend dominating in the short term, with its trading following a slash, and after reaching oversold levels, positive signals appeared on the RSI, providing positive momentum, especially as its trading above the EMA50.

4. Institutional View

BlackRock: Under global economic uncertainty, the Bank of Japan is expected to continue to wait and see this year.

Ben Powell, chief investment strategist at BlackRock Middle East and Asia-Pacific, said that due to global economic uncertainty, the Bank of Japan is likely to keep interest rates unchanged by the end of this year. This remained silent amid the background of rising food prices driving up inflation. At the same time, global trade frictions and oil price fluctuations have also added www.avaforexcn.complexity to the economic environment. Powell pointed out that from a domestic perspective, a virtuous cycle is forming between rising wages and strong prices, and the momentum is gradually increasing. However, uncertainty in the external environment still keeps the Bank of Japan waiting and see. He added: From a strategic perspective, we still recommend maintaining a higher-than-benchmark allocation ratio for Japanese stocks in the long-term portfolio. Factors supporting this view include rising inflation, wage growth and the resulting improvement in corporate profits.

Institutional: If retail sales are inferior to expectations, the Federal Reserve will fall Rate bets may heat up

Konstantinos Chrysikos, head of customer relations management at Kudotrade, believes that if the decline in U.S. retail sales data is greater than expected, it may strengthen bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts. Data shows that market participants currently expect the Fed to cut two interest rates this year. A Wall Street Journal survey showed that U.S. retail sales in May are expected to fall by 0.6% month-on-month, while the previous data was up 0.1%.

Above content It is all about "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Eurozone Treasury bond yields rise, Spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange short-term trend analysis on June 17" was carefully www.avaforexcn.compiled and edited by Aihua Avatrade Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for your support!

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