Federal Reserve officials sent dovish signals, oil prices plummeted by 9%!

On June 24, early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.15. On Monday, the US dollar index fluctuated in the Asian session and the European session hit 99.40. Later, it fell below the $99 mark due to dovish remarks by Federal Reserve officials during the US session, and finally closed down 0.43% to 98.35. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.3490%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.8700%. As Iran notified the United States and Qatar a few hours before the attack, Trump said it was time to achieve peace. Spot gold turned down at the end of the trading day and finally closed down 0.11%, closing at $3,367.56/oz; spot silver finally closed up 0.14%, at $36.07/oz. As Iran's retaliation was less severe than investors expected, concerns about oil supply eased, and international crude oil plummeted by more than 8%. WTI crude oil finally closed down 9.11% at $67.22 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 8.86% at $70.33 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.15. The turbulent evolution of the Middle East conflict has triggered a bearish turn in the dollar market, with investors betting on the slowdown of retaliatory missile attacks. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak at the government hearing to start a two-day speech to the Congress and Senate Economic www.avaforexcn.committee. Market attention will be more focused on Federal Reserve Chairman PowellIn the face, investors are looking forward to seeing how the Fed will respond to President Donald Trump's continued mockery of the Fed's unwillingness to cut interest rates, which may benefit Trump's budget deficit inflation bill. Technically, if the US dollar index closes below 50MA of 98.51, it will move towards the support level of 98.00–98.20.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1604. Although geopolitical shocks have not caused severe fluctuations, analysts believe that risk aversion has already emerged during the session, especially in the context of unclear situation in the Middle East, the market expressed concern about the inflation impact of the soaring crude oil. As the representative currency of the net oil import region, the euro is dragged down by high crude oil. At the same time, market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in July have been loosened due to Waller's remarks, but it still needs further guidance at Powell's hearing this week. Technically, the nearest resistance level of the EUR/USD is in the range of 1.1555–1.1570. A breakout above the 1.1570 level will push the EUR/USD toward the next resistance level 1.1675–1.1690.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3553. The pound/dollar rose on Monday, with prices rising sharply after the U.S. chose to step directly into the recently escalated Israel-Iran conflict. The Trump administration bypassed Congressional mandate and ordered a series of attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, causing the crude oil market to soar. The parties temporarily agreed to a ceasefire after Iran launched a retaliatory attack on U.S. Air Force facilities in Qatar earlier on Monday, and negotiations between Iran and Israel are expected to begin. Technically, breaking through 50MA1.3506 will push GBP/USD to the next resistance level 1.3620–1.3640.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Term on Tuesday, gold trading around 3349.7. As US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran had reached a full agreement and a full ceasefire will be achieved, market concerns about the situation in the Middle East have quickly cooled down, suppressing the risk-averse demand of gold. International oil prices continued to fall on Monday, falling 6% to around $64.38 per barrel, a new low in the past two weeks. Investors need to pay attention to further news about the situation in the Middle East. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will present a semi-annual monetary policy report testimony to the House Financial Services www.avaforexcn.committee this day, which also needs to be paid attention to.

Technical: Judging from the daily K-line chart, the overall gold price is oscillating near the middle rail of the Bollinger Band. The current three Bollinger Band tracks are in a horizontal state, indicating that the short-term trend of the market is not yet clear. In terms of the K-line trend, the smaller positive and negative lines have been closed many times recently, showing a typical sideways consolidation pattern, and at the same time, a clear oscillation range (US$3300-3450). The MACD indicator shows that the main line is currently close to the signal line. Although the bar chart is still below the zero axis, it means trying to get out of the bottom divergence. Analysts believe that if it can cross upward and turn into a red column, it will release further kinetic energy signals for the bulls.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Tuesday, crude oil trading around 65.55. U.S. President Donald Trump said a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has eased concerns about supply disruptions in the region and WTI prices have fallen. The Iranian parliament has voted to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Trump's attack on the country over the weekend. However, no casualties were reported after the attack. Instead, Iran attacked U.S. military bases in Qatar in retaliation for U.S. attacks on its nuclear facilities.

Technical: The price touches the resistance level at the red dotted trend line near the USD 77 area. After reaching this level, the price fell to the support level of $65. A breakout of $77 may cause oil prices to move towards the $84 area, while a continuous breakthrough of $84 may trigger a long-term rebound in oil prices. However, oil prices showed drastic fluctuations in the $65 to $77 range.

Forex market trading reminder on June 24, 2025

①To be determined the United States imposed tariffs on various steel appliances

②To be determined Iranian Foreign Minister Aragic held talks with Russian President Putin

③15:15France's initial manufacturing PMI in June

④15:30Germany's initial manufacturing PMI in June

⑤16:00Eurozone's initial manufacturing PMI in June

⑥16:30Eurozone's initial manufacturing PMI in June

⑦16:30Eurozone's initial manufacturing PMI in June

⑦16:30Eurozone's initial manufacturing PMI in June

⑧21:0 0 European Central Bank President Lagarde made an introductory speech

⑨21:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in June

⑩21:45 US S&P Global Services PMI in June

22:00 US May

22:00 US May

22:00 US Director Bowman delivered a speech

01:10 Fed Goulsby attended the event Q&A

02:30 US the next day

Kugler and Williams hosted the event

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