US gasoline demand is strong, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on May 30

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, Dow futures fell 0.05%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.11%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.13%. The German DAX index rose 0.57%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.59%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.26%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.42%.

2. Market news interpretation

U.S. gasoline demand is strong, and inventory declines before summer driving peak season

⑴ U.S. crude oil inventories weekly report shows that crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell sharply, and the gap with the five-year average widened to 6%, pointed out Barbara Rambrecht, www.avaforexcn.commodity analyst at www.avaforexcn.commerzbank. ⑵ U.S. gasoline demand increased significantly, reaching nearly 9.5 million barrels per day, an increase of about 800,000 barrels from the previous week. ⑶ Demand has risen sharply before the summer driving season (usually starting from Memorial Day weekend) officially begins, mainly due to the statistical method of gasoline delivery, i.e. the number of gasoline shipments from US refineries to gas stations. ⑷ Gas station operators are obviously optimistic about demand, and the American Automobile Association (AAA) has also predicted a new peak in travel on Memorial Day weekend.

Kazakhstan refuses to cut production, will other key oil-producing countries follow up?

⑴ The press statement of OPEC+ Wednesday meeting was extremely short, with all previous decisions confirmed, including the maintenance of production quotas until December 2026 and the authorization of the Joint Ministerial Supervisory www.avaforexcn.committee (JMMC), German BusinessBank www.avaforexcn.commodity analyst Barbara Rambrecht pointed out. ⑵The focus is currently turning to the meeting of key oil-producing countries of the eight major countries held on Saturday (online), which have previously cut additional production. According to the delegates at the meeting, further increase in production is under discussion. ⑶ In view of the latest statements by Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkeninov, this possibility is even higher. He has notified OPEC that Kazakhstan will not cut production. ⑷ About 70% of the country's oil production is controlled by international www.avaforexcn.companies, which cannot be required to fulfill any www.avaforexcn.commitments. According to the minister, further increase in production cannot be ruled out from September. ⑸ The Deputy Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan also said that OPEC+ production increase on Saturday is a foregone conclusion, but the specific figures have not yet been determined: 400,000, 500,000 or 600,000 barrels per day. ⑹If production increases further in July than in previous months, oil prices that have already fallen slightly before the meeting may face greater pressure.

Indian economy has accelerated its growth in the recent quarter

As manufacturing and private consumption continue to show resilience, the Indian economy has accelerated its growth in the latest quarter. Official data released on Friday showed that India's economy grew 7.4% in January-March, faster than 6.2% in the previous quarter, marking its best quarterly growth in a year. The growth figure exceeded the median expected by the Wall Street Journal after surveying economists at 6.8%. Previously, the economy had unexpectedly sharply slowed down from July to September last year, causing concerns that the country's economy is losing momentum. Throughout the fiscal year, India's economy grew by 6.5%, consistent with the government's forecast of 6.5%, while growth momentum increased in the last quarter. These data www.avaforexcn.come as the country's economy is at a crossroads: years of strong growth have made it about to become the world's fourth largest economy, but the country's economy continues to face internal and external challenges. Nomura economists believe that a strong service industry will help support growth in the current fiscal year. They said in a report that India could be the winner in supply chain transfers caused by trade tensions between China and the United States.

U.S. industry insiders expect freight volume in the Port of Los Angeles may decrease significantly in May

U.S. port operations continue to be affected due to the recent capricious tariff policies of the US government. Recently, industry insiders said that the freight volume in the Port of Los Angeles, the largest and busiest container port in the United States, may drop significantly in May. Gene Seroca, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said on the 29th local time that as the traditional peak sea transportation season is approaching, the port's business is showing a weak trend www.avaforexcn.compared to the past. The port's freight volume has dropped by 30% in the first and fourth weeks of May. He expects a double-digit percentage drop in the Port of Los Angeles in May. This also means that the employment impact on ports will appear, as the reduction in cargo ships means reducing the demand for unloading and freight workers. Seroca also said that 10 ships scheduled to arrive in the Port of Los Angeles have been cancelled in June.

The Kremlin says the safety of the Black Sea navigation will be included in the terms of the Ukrainian agreement

According to TASS news, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry? wearSkov said Russia and Ukraine are in consultation on a list of temporary ceasefire conditions, and the safety of Black Sea navigation will be part of a possible agreement in the future. Russian President Putin is ready to hold high-level talks on Ukraine, but first of all, the two delegations need to achieve results in direct negotiations. Peskov said the draft peace memorandum of Russia and Ukraine will not be published. The Russian delegation is heading to Istanbul and will prepare for a new round of negotiations with Ukraine on June 2.

Tokyo inflation data hints at the risk of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in July

⑴Tokyo's May inflation data exceeded expectations, with an annual rate of 3.6%, the highest level since early 2023, ING foreign exchange analyst Chris Turner pointed out. ⑵ This data shows that the market may underestimate the possibility of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in July, and investors currently only believe that there is a 14% chance of it. ⑶ If interest rates are raised in July, the yen will be supported, and the cost of Japanese investors to hedge against U.S. assets will be reduced. ⑷ Japanese investors usually have a low hedging ratio for US assets, and reducing hedging costs will further push global investors to increase the hedging ratio of US dollar. ⑸ ING's year-end forecast for the US dollar to Japanese yen is 140, but the risk is obviously downward.

The new version of the "Agriculture White Paper" in Japan: Domestic consumption is expected to decrease, and overseas markets are explored to seek growth

On May 30, the Japanese government finalized the 2024 edition of the "Agriculture White Paper (Food? Agriculture? Rural Trends)" at a cabinet meeting. Among them, the white paper set up chapters related to agricultural, forestry and aquatic products and food exports for the first time, pointing out that in the context of the expected reduction of domestic consumption, "it is essential to turn to earning profits through the growing overseas market." The white paper emphasizes that although the export volume of agricultural products and food exceeded 1.5 trillion yen (about 75 billion yuan) for the first time in 2024, the export proportion is still relatively low www.avaforexcn.compared to other countries, and there is a lot of room for growth. The white paper points out that in order to expand exports, products that meet the expected prices and quality needs of the local market are needed.

U.S. industry insiders expect freight volume in the Port of Los Angeles may decrease significantly in May

U.S. port operations continue to be affected due to the recent capricious tariff policies of the US government. Recently, industry insiders said that the freight volume in the Port of Los Angeles, the largest and busiest container port in the United States, may drop significantly in May. Gene Seroca, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said on the 29th local time that as the traditional peak sea transportation season is approaching, the port's business is showing a weak trend www.avaforexcn.compared to the past. The port's freight volume has dropped by 30% in the first and fourth weeks of May. He expects a double-digit percentage drop in the Port of Los Angeles in May. This also means that the employment impact on ports will appear, as the reduction in cargo ships means reducing the demand for unloading and freight workers. Seroca also said that 10 ships scheduled to arrive in the Port of Los Angeles have been cancelled in June. The Port of Los Angeles is one of the busiest ports in the United States and is the largest maritime portal for importing goods from China. Its main customers include Walmart and other large customers.retailers and parts suppliers of major automakers such as Ford. According to data previously released by the National Retail Federation, U.S. imports are expected to fall by at least 20% year-on-year in the second half of 2025.

Swiss KOF economic barometer in May rebounded, and manufacturing performed strongly.

⑴Swiss's KOF economic barometer in May rose to 98.5, higher than the previous value of 97.1 (a year and a half low) and the market expectation of 98.4. The enhanced momentum at the production end is the main driving factor, and the overall operating conditions, exports, production activities and www.avaforexcn.competitive environment indicators of the manufacturing and construction industry have improved. ⑵ By industry, manufacturing industries such as chemical pharmaceuticals, wood, glass and stone, food and beverages, and paper printing have performed outstandingly. However, demand-side indicators are still under pressure, and overseas demand and private consumption have not seen significant improvements.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1345, a drop of 0.19%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (Euro-USD) fell in recent intraday trading, trying to get positive momentum that could help it recover and rise again, trying to get rid of some of the obvious overbought situations of (RSI), especially when negative signals start to appear.

GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3478, a drop of 0.07%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price fell on the last trading day, trying to get positive momentum that could help it recover and rise again, and trying to unload some obvious overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially when the main bullish trends dominate, and trading along a small slash in the short term, the continued support for dynamic support represented by the exchange above the EMA50

Spot Gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell and is now at 3299.68, a drop of 0.51%. Before New York, the (gold) price fell in recent intraday trading while trading along a small bullish trend line on a short-term basis, trying to get positive momentum that could help it rise again, and trying to unload some overbought conditions of (RSI), but it exceeded the EMA50 support, which puts it under temporary negative pressure that could slow its recovery.

Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 33.097, a drop of 0.58%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price fluctuated in the recent intraday trading, reaching a superAfter buying levels, silver prices have recently fallen due to pressure from negative signals on (RSI), relying on short-term bullish trend lines while relying on EMA50 support, providing some positive momentum to help it stabilize and rebound higher and maintain a bullish track.

Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 60.430, a drop of 0.82%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (crude oil) fluctuated in recent intraday trading. After reaching overbought levels, the price has recently fallen due to pressure from negative signals on the (RSI) to rely on the short-term bullish trend line while relying on the support of the EMA50, providing some positive momentum to help it stabilize and rebound higher and maintain a bullish track.

4. Institutional view

Institutional: The inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve is expected to remain higher than 2%. Economists expect that U.S. personal consumption expenditure will increase by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year in April. Excluding the volatile food and energy prices, core personal consumption expenditure is expected to grow by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. Core personal consumption expenditure is a inflation indicator generally favored by the Federal Reserve. Pioneer Group economist Josh Hirt said in a report that it is necessary to pay close attention to "the January and March PCE data may be raised due to corrections in hospitals, doctors and insurance services." Gwww.avaforexcn.comeneGoldman said U.S. inflation data is expected to cool down on Friday, but believes that this will not trigger too much market reaction. He said short-term data is noisy and still affected by factors such as www.avaforexcn.companies trying to seize the lead in tariffs by importing additional supplies and inventory earlier this year.

Mitsubishi UF: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut too late may cause the dollar to weaken

Mitsubishi UF analyst Derek Halpenney pointed out in the report that the Federal Reserve may need to support the economy by cutting interest rates later this year, which may cause the dollar to weaken. He said the suspension of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may continue into the summer, and the market does not expect another rate cut by September. This means the Fed could lag significantly behind other G10 central banks in returning interest rates to neutral levels that neither stimulate nor drag economic growth. This means the Fed needs to take more easing measures by then, and we think this will be a factor in suppressing the dollar later this year.

The above content is about "【AvaTreade: The demand for gasoline in the United States is strong. The entire content of the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on May 30 was carefully www.avaforexcn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for your support!

Due to the limited ability and time constraints, some content in the article still needs to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues: