Russia and Ukraine began the second round of direct negotiations, and analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on June 2

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major futures indexes all fell, Dow futures fell 0.43%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.50%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.67%. Most European stock markets fell, with the German DAX index falling 0.7%, the UK FTSE 100 index falling 0.2%, and the French CAC40 index falling 0.28%.

2. Market news interpretation

Russia and Ukraine began the second round of direct negotiations

National time today (June 2), around 14:45, that is, around 19:45 Beijing time. After nearly 2 hours delaying from the original time, the Russian and Ukrainian negotiating delegation began the second round of negotiations since the recovery of direct negotiations at the Chilaon Palace in Istanbul, Turkey.

Tesla's sales in France plummeted 67% to its lowest level in nearly three years

According to data from the French auto industry association Plateforme Automobile, Tesla sold only 721 cars in the country in May, down 67% from the same period last year. Despite the www.avaforexcn.company's launch of a facelifted version of its best-selling model, the number of registrations is still at its lowest level since July 2022. Since the beginning of this year, Tesla's stock price has fallen by 14%.

European and American trade officials will face the EU on Wednesday to reiterate tariff countermeasures

EU spokespersonOne said the EU sent a technical team to Washington for trade negotiations with the Trump administration. The EU warned last weekend that Trump raising steel tariffs to 50% could jeopardize negotiations between the two major economies and trigger retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. A spokesman reiterated the warning on Monday, saying the EU is ready to take countermeasures if “our negotiations cannot achieve a balanced result.” EU Trade www.avaforexcn.commissioner Sevkovic is expected to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Greer in Paris on Wednesday.

US Media: US Department of Justice investigates whether India's Adani Group imports Iranian liquefied petroleum gas

According to the Wall Street Journal, Asia's second richest man, Gautam Adani, faces new challenges in the fight with prosecutors. The US Department of Justice is investigating whether Adani's www.avaforexcn.company imports Iranian liquefied petroleum gas from India through the www.avaforexcn.company's port of Mondra. A spokesman for Adani denied any intentional evasion of sanctions or involves trade in Iran's origin in liquefied petroleum gas, saying he was unaware of any investigation by the U.S. authorities. Last November, U.S. prosecutors charged Adani with fraud, saying he planned to bribe about $250 million to Indian officials in order to obtain a lucrative contract for Indian solar power supply. The report said prosecutors are reviewing the activities of several LPG tankers used to deliver goods to Adani businesses.

Eurozone bond yields rose

⑴ German 10-year government bond yields rose on Monday after a sharp drop last week, while short-term yields remained stable, and traders prepared for the ECB's expected rate cut this week. ⑵ German 10-year government bond yield rose 3.5 basis points to 2.54%, after the previous week recorded its biggest weekly decline since mid-April. ⑶ The market has little response to the data that the decline in the euro zone manufacturing industry has further eased. ⑷ The eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers index rose from 49.0 in April to 49.4 in May, a 33-month high, consistent with preliminary estimates, but still below the 50 boom-bust line. ⑸ The market is concerned about US trade policy. Trump said on Friday that he plans to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, exacerbating trade tensions. ⑹ The ECB is expected to cut interest rates to 2% on Thursday, the eighth rate cut in this cycle, and investors believe it will suspend interest rate cuts later, as the economy performs better than expected and long-term inflation concerns reappear. ⑺Money market traders almost fully priced a rate cut of 25 basis points on Thursday, while a loose price of about 55 basis points by the end of the year suggests only another 25 basis points cut. ⑻The yield on Germany's two-year government bonds is more sensitive to changes in interest rate policies and expectations, with little change on Monday, still at 1.79%. ⑼ Traders were cautious about the 10-year Treasury auction in Japan held on Tuesday, following weak demand for long-term Treasury auctions in May. ⑽Global long-term treasury yields have risen recently, although Germany's government bonds have little change and Germany has promised to spend. ⑾The yield on Germany's 30-year government bonds rose 4 basis points to 3.05%, but is still far below the year-on-year high of 3.25% since mid-March. ⑿Italian 10-year government bondYields rose 4.5 basis points to 3.54%, pushing the spread of the 10-year government bond yields slightly widened to 97 basis points.

Trump tariffs hit European steel manufacturers

⑴ Germany's second largest steel maker Salzgitter warned that the U.S. tariff policy has dealt a severe blow to European industry, after the U.S. government announced plans to raise import tariffs to 50%. ⑵The United States is the most important market in the European steel export industry, accounting for one-fifth of European steel exports, about 4 million tons. ⑶ Salzgiot CEO Gunnar Groebler said that the unstable tariff policy of the United States has had a serious impact on the European economy, especially Germany. ⑷Groebler pointed out that in addition to direct tariffs on US exports, the EU market is also facing greater import pressure due to the increase in Asian steel imports in Europe. ⑸ Asian steel has been pouring into the European market for many years, and the trend has intensified by US tariffs, which has been the biggest concern for the European steel industry, and there is also the issue of high energy prices. ⑹ To address these concerns, the EU tightened its steel import quota on April 1, further reducing inflows by 15% as part of its so-called European Steel and Metal Action Plan. ⑺Salzgitter's share price fell along with other major European steel www.avaforexcn.companies Thyssenkrupp and ArcelorMittal, with a drop of between 0.6% and 1.8%. ⑻Salzgitter's sales in the United States account for only 4.5% of its total sales, with non-steel technology accounting for half of it. ThyssenKrupp previously said that the United States accounts for less than 5% of its steel exports. ⑼Groebler said that the U.S. raising steel import tariffs to 50% should prompt the European www.avaforexcn.commission to speed up the implementation of measures in its steel and metal action plan.

UK mortgage approval volume dropped to a minimum of more than a year

⑴UK mortgage approval volume dropped to a minimum of more than a year in April as the market adapts to higher home purchase taxes. ⑵The stamp duty reduction for home purchase expired at the end of March, resulting in a surge in home purchases in March and a sharp drop in April. ⑶ Mortgage approvals fell from 63,603 in March to 60,463 in April, down from the 63,000 economists surveyed by Reuters. ⑷ Net mortgage loan borrowing decreased by £759 million in April, the largest monthly decline since January 2024. ⑸Nationwide, the second largest home loan agency in the UK in Dalian, said that housing price growth in May exceeded expectations, and low unemployment and wage growth exceeded inflation to drive demand. ⑹CapitalEconomicwww.avaforexcn.coms said mortgage approvals in April fell for the third consecutive month, probably not all because buyers bought homes in advance to avoid taxes. ⑺Ruth Gregory, deputy chief economist at Capital Economics, said she is on the fourth quarter of 2025There is a downside risk for the annual growth rate of 3.5% in the house price. ⑻Bank of England data showed that consumer-free credit increased by 1.58 billion pounds, with an annual growth rate rising from 6.2% in March to 6.7%, the fastest growth rate since October 2024.

Australia's weak growth in the first quarter may strengthen central bank interest rate cut expectations

Shane Oliver, chief economist at financial services firm AMP, said Australia's first-quarter GDP data to be released on Wednesday could show that the economy slowed at the beginning of the year due to sluggish consumer demand and lower business investment. Oliver expects growth in trade, government spending and residential investment to bring about a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. This will increase the annual growth rate to 1.5%. Mediocre growth figures should support the idea that the RBA still has a lot of room for interest rate cuts.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:28 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1419, an increase of 0.63%. Before New York, the price of (Euro-USD) expanded its gains in recent intraday trading, hitting our morning targets and attacking the key resistance of 1.1420, supported by its trading above the EMA50, which is accompanied by a short-term bull trend line.

GBP/USD: As of 20:28 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3540, an increase of 0.63%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price closed higher in the last intraday trading, with key support stabilizing at 1.3440, which provided some positive momentum, with the (RSI) starting to show positive signals after reaching oversold levels, with the main bullish trend dominant, and its trading followed a small slash on a short-term basis, which allowed the price to try to get rid of the negative pressures of the EMA50 to strengthen the positive scenario.

Spot gold: As of 20:28 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3362.47, an increase of 2.19%. Before the New York Stock Market, the (gold) price rose significantly in recent intraday trading, taking advantage of the dynamic support it represents on the exchange above the EMA50, and despite reaching overbought levels, there was a positive signal on the (RSI) to attack its current resistance at $3,655, while it moved the range of a small bullish channel, limiting its previous short-term trading.

Spot silver: As of 20:28 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 33.418, an increase of 1.38%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, after reaching an exaggerated oversold level, silver prices rose steadily in recent intraday trading, gaining positive momentum from the bullish trend line on a short-term basis, accompanied by the emergence of positive signals on (RSI), which increased positive momentum and allowed the price to exceed the resistance of the EMA50 and exceed its negative pressure.

Crude oil market: As of 20:28 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 63.640, an increase of 4.70%. Before New York, (crude oil) prices rose in recent intraday trading, taking advantage of the dynamic support it represents on the exchange above the EMA50, and the stability of the key support of the $60.00, where the horizontal range between this support and $63.50 resistance remains the short-term dominance, and on the other hand, we note that the (RSI) indicator reaches an exaggerated overbought level that may slow its upcoming rally.

4. Institutional view

Jefferies: The U.S. raising steel tariffs will have an adverse impact on EU producers

Jefferies analysts Cole Hathorn and Tommaso Castello said in a report that the U.S. raising steel import tariffs from 25% to 50% will have an adverse impact on EU-listed steel www.avaforexcn.companies exported to the United States. For example, Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal is expected to face $100 million in losses each quarter under a 25% tariff. If the tariffs increase to 50%, this impact will rise, with an estimated total of more than $500 million per year. Jefferies said the tariff increase to 50% will also affect Austria's Voestalpine, increasing the www.avaforexcn.company's impact from 30 million to 40 million euros under the initial 25% tariff to more than 80 million euros.

Analysts: Improved housing price data helps support the British economy, the British pound remains strong.

Dutch International currency analyst Chris Turner said in the report: "The pound remains relatively support, especially against the US dollar." He said that as interest rates drop, the improvement in the UK house price data on Monday may help support the British economy. Nationwide data shows that house prices rose 3.5% last month from a year ago. LSEG data shows that the pound rose to an intraday high of 1.3557 against the US dollar, approaching a three-year high of $1.3593 last week.

The above content is all about "[Aihua Official Website]: Russia and Ukraine start the second round of direct negotiations, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on June 2" was carefully www.avaforexcn.compiled and edited by Aihua Avatrade foreign exchange editor.I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thanks for the support!

Life in the present, don’t waste your current life in missing the past or looking forward to the future.