Trump suspends his "decapitation" action against Iran! Countdown to the pharmaceutical tariff storm

On June 18, early trading in Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.78. U.S. retail sales were weaker than expected in May on Tuesday, but consumer spending was still supported by solid wage growth. The US dollar index weakened after the data was released, but as the market digested the mixed situation reflected by the data, the US dollar quickly reversed its decline and finally closed up 0.69% to 98.84. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.3940%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.9600%. Although tensions in Iran and Israel boosted safe-haven demand, the dollar strengthened limited gains, with spot gold finally closing up 0.14% to close at $3,389.49/ounce; spot silver prices soared to a 13-year high and finally closed up 2.32% to $37.13/ounce. Geopolitical tensions have left the market nervous as Trump urges everyone to evacuate from Tehran. WTI crude oil finally closed up 5.38% at $73.75 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 6.31% at $77.01 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.78. Worries about the escalating war between Israel and Iran boosted demand for safe-haven assets, but the dollar failed to get any significant support from this background. The U.S. dollar index is working to expand gains, breaking through the 98.00 level and remains dangerously close to the multi-year low of 97.50 hit last week. Technically, ifThe US dollar index successfully closed above 50MA at 98.59, and it will move towards the next resistance level in the 99.00–99.20 range

Euro: As of press time, the Euro/USD hovers around 1.1489. As hostilities between Israel and Iran begin, the euro/dollar rebounded after falling 0.25% last Friday, boosting the dollar's attractiveness. Nevertheless, the improvement in risk appetite has supported the euro as the two sides will continue to confront and the risk of morphing into regional conflicts is slightly reduced. Technically, a break below 50MA1.1483 will push the EUR/USD toward the nearest support level 1.1410–1.1425.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3437. The pound/dollar fell back on risk aversion and plummeted to 1.3515 as Israel cracked down on Iran's military and nuclear facilities while targeted attacks on top officials. Since then, Iran has retaliated and the truce seems out of reach as the two sides fight each other. Technically, the closest support level of GBP/USD is in the range of 1.3420–1.3440. If GBP/USD falls below the 1.3420 level, it will go to the next support level 1.3260–1.3280.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Which trading was held in Asian trading on Wednesday, gold trading was around 3385.93. Gold prices fell below $3,400 on Tuesday despite deteriorating risk appetite, as the overall strength of the dollar pushed gold down. Still, the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict may support precious metals because of its hedge appeal.

Technical: Since the price trend is still constructive, the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, and a series of higher highs and higher lows are continuously achieved. Any retracement can be seen as an opportunity to buy on dips, as momentum measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish. That being said, gold's first resistance level will be the www.avaforexcn.com$3400 mark, followed by $3450 and a short-term all-time high of $3500. On the contrary, if gold stays at US$3400Below the RMB, the callback may extend to the $3350 mark, or even lower. The following key support is $3293 for the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), followed by $3167 for the April 3 high support.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading was around 74.92. WTI prices continued to rise as tensions in the Middle East escalated and the likelihood of the U.S. (US) getting involved in conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump posted on his social media platform calling for Iran to "unconditional surrender." Amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, fears that the U.S. will be involved in the conflict, pushing up WTI prices. In addition, a senior www.avaforexcn.commander said on Saturday that Iran, a major oil producer, is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, could push up crude oil prices in the short term.

Technical: Crude oil traders have begun pricing the possibility of the United States being directly involved in the Israel-Iran conflict. A breakout above the $75.00 level will open the way for testing the $77.00-$77.50 resistance level.

Forex market trading reminder on June 18, 2025

①To be determined 2025 Lujiazui Forum was held in Shanghai

②14:00 UK May CPI monthly rate

③14:00 UK May retail price index monthly rate

④16:00 Eurozone April seasonally adjusted current account

⑤17:00 Eurozone May C PI annual rate final value

⑥17:00 Eurozone May CPI monthly rate final value

⑦20:30 Number of initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to June 14

⑧20:30 Total number of new homes started in May in the United States

⑨20:30 Total number of construction permits in the United States in May

⑩22:30 EIA crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to June 13< /p>

22:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to June 13

22:30 EIA Strategic Oil Reserve Inventories in the week from the United States to June 13

23:15 Bank of Canada Governor McClum delivered a speech

00:00 the next day to the week from the United States to June 13

02:00 the next day to the Federal Reserve

02:00 the next day to the Federal Reserve

02:00 the next day to the Federal Reserve

02:00 the Federal Reserve

00 the next day to the Federal Reserve

02:00 the Federal Reserve

00 the next day to the Federal Reserve

00 the Federal Reserve

02:00 the Federal Reserve

FOMC announced the summary of interest rate resolution and economic expectations

Federal Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference at 02:30 the next day

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