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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
At a time when the global economy is closely linked, the foreign exchange market is affected by many factors and there is constant news every day. On July 10, a series of important news had a significant impact on crude oil-related currencies and the overall foreign exchange market. The following is a review of the positive and negative news that affected the foreign exchange market on that day.
1. The impact of crude oil market trends on the foreign exchange market
(I) International oil prices fluctuated and closed higher
In trading on July 10, the price of light crude oil futures delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in August, namely the WTI crude oil futures price, fluctuated wide around US$67, and finally closed up 0.03% to US$67.19/barrel; the price of Brent crude oil futures delivered on the London Intercontinental Exchange in September fluctuated around US$69.5, closing up 0.08% to US$69.47/barrel. The rise in oil prices has theoretically positive support for the currencies of crude oil exporters. Currencies such as the Russian ruble and the Canadian dollar that are more closely related to crude oil exports, if oil prices continue to rise, their export revenue is expected to increase, and economic fundamentals may improve, thereby increasing the attractiveness of the currency. However, in actual situations, factors such as the degree of economic structure diversification and monetary policy orientation of these countries need to be considered. For example, although Russia's economy relies on crude oil exports, it is also restricted by factors such as international sanctions. The trend of its currency ruble is not determined only by oil prices.
(II) OPEC maintains oil demand growth forecast
OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report on July 10, maintaining a relatively strong forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next year. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024 and 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025. ThisOptimistic forecasts suggest that the global economic recovery is good and demand for www.avaforexcn.commodities such as crude oil continues to rise. From the perspective of the foreign exchange market, improving economic growth expectations will increase market risk preferences and prompt investors to increase their investment in emerging market currencies. Because emerging market countries are often major consumer countries for www.avaforexcn.commodities such as crude oil, economic growth drives crude oil demand, thereby promoting their economic development and enhancing the attractiveness of their currency. However, the market has different views on the growth of oil demand. If the actual subsequent demand is lower than expected, it may trigger market corrections and have an impact on the relevant currencies.
(III) EIA raised the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2025
In the short-term energy outlook report on the day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) maintained the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2024 unchanged, still at 1.1 million barrels per day, but significantly increased the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2025 from 1.5 million barrels per day to 1.8 million barrels per day, an increase of 300,000 barrels per day. This adjustment reflects more optimistic expectations for future growth in energy demand. For the US dollar, as an important global crude oil consumer and producer, the growth in crude oil demand means that economic activities may be more active, which will be beneficial to the US dollar to a certain extent. However, the market responded to the adjustment of this data in a different way. Investors need to www.avaforexcn.comprehensively consider other economic data, such as employment, inflation, etc. to judge the trend of the US dollar.
(IV) The OPEC+ production increase plan is steadily advancing
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+)www.avaforexcn.comThe production increase plan is steadily advancing. The June meeting confirmed the acceleration of production increase, and it is expected to achieve the original one-and-a-half-year increase target of 2.2 million barrels per day before September. On July 5, the major OPEC+ member states further reached a consensus and agreed to increase the daily oil output by 548,000 barrels in August, exceeding the market's previous expectations. The implementation of the production increase plan will significantly increase the supply of the global crude oil market. If supply increases significantly and demand increases less than expected, oil prices may face downward pressure. For the currencies of crude oil importers, falling oil prices reduce import costs, help improve trade revenue and expenditure, and have certain support for the currency. However, it is a negative for the currencies of crude oil exporters, which may lead to increased pressure on their currency depreciation.
2. The potential impact of other related news on the foreign exchange market
(I) Uncertainty in Trump's tariff policy
U.S. President Trump said on the 4th local time that the US government will start sending letters to trading partners starting on the same day to set a new unilateral tariff rate, with the highest tax rate likely to reach 70%. "Eight or nine out of ten" will start from August 1. The uncertainty of US tariff policies has caused market concerns about global trade and economic growth. In the foreign exchange market, risk aversion sentiment may heat up, and investors tend to hold safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, etc. Emerging market currencies and www.avaforexcn.commodity currenciesIt may be impacted because blockages in global trade will affect exports and economic growth in emerging market countries, and www.avaforexcn.commodity currencies will also be under pressure due to www.avaforexcn.commodity price fluctuations and unclear demand outlook.
(II) Barclays raises oil price forecast
Barclays said that in view of the improvement in demand outlook, it raised its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel and its 2026 price forecast by $10 to $70 per barrel. The bank believes that the tightening of supply and demand balance is due to strong demand growth, weak non-OPEC supply growth and the IEA uplifting benchmark demand forecasts. This upward forecast indirectly reflects the expectation of positive demand in crude oil market and has certain positive support for crude oil-related currencies. But at the same time, it should be noted that the actual supply and demand situation in the market is www.avaforexcn.complex and changeable, and the oil price trend does not entirely depend on the predictions of a single institution. Foreign exchange investors need to pay close attention to changes in actual supply and demand data.
On July 10, the foreign exchange market was affected by the trends of the crude oil market and other related news. Investors need to pay close attention to the subsequent development of these news, www.avaforexcn.comprehensively analyze various factors, and make investment decisions cautiously to cope with the uncertainty and volatility of the foreign exchange market.
The above content is all about "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Collection of Positive and Negative News that Influences the Foreign Exchange Market". It was carefully www.avaforexcn.compiled and edited by Aihua Avatrade Foreign Exchange Editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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