The global market changed overnight! US credit collapses gold rushes 3240

On May 19, in the early trading of Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 100.73. The latest round of economic data on Friday showed that U.S. import prices rebounded in April, while consumer confidence was still sluggish in May. The US dollar index fell first and then rose, and once returned to the 101 mark during the session, but failed to stand firm above this mark and finally closed up 0.18% to 100.99. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.484%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.014%. Spot gold fell more than 2% last Friday to an intraday low of $3,154.29. Although it recovered some of its lost ground at the end of the session, it still hit its worst week since November last year, finally closing down 1.18% to $3,202.27 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed down 1.1% at $32.26 per ounce. Affected by Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, spot gold rose sharply on Monday and approached the $3,240 mark. The two oils rebounded, with WTI crude oil closing up 1.1% to $61.87 per barrel; Brent crude oil closing up 1.03% to $64.90 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 100.73. The dollar fell nearly 9% during a sharp decline from March to April, but has recovered some of the lost ground in recent weeks. The key recovery momentum is the U.S.-China tradeThe change of words, tensions eased, eventually evolved into a 90-day trade truce between the two superpowers. Technically, the closest resistance level of the US dollar index is in the range of 101.40–101.60. If the U.S. dollar index closes above the 101.60 level, it will move towards the next resistance level 103.30–103.50.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1188. The euro remained under pressure last Friday, with the euro/dollar falling back to the 1.1130 level, hitting a new three-day low. Despite a weak U-Mich index reading in May, the dollar gained support as inflation expectations rose. Technically, successful testing of support level 1.1110–1.1130 will push the EUR/USD toward the next support level 1.0900–1.0920.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovers around 1.3304. GBP/USD fell back to mid-1.3200 in Friday trading as the dollar recovered against a wider risk-linked area. According to the latest data from the U-Mich survey, rising consumer inflation expectations in the U.S. support the dollar upside. Technically, if GBP/USD closes below the 1.3250 level, it will test the nearest support level 1.3200–1.3220.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold trading around 3234.92. After the opening of the Asian trading session, the spot gold price opened more than $15 higher, and the gold price continued to soar. The current gold price is around $3,244/ounce, and it soars by more than $40 during the day. On the other hand, the US dollar and US stock futures suffered a blow. Analysts pointed out that Moody’s Ratings suddenly downgraded the US sovereignty rating last Friday. This "black swan" event has caused concerns about the US fiscal situation, and the resulting safe-haven buying stimulated gold prices to strengthen. In addition, the weakening of the US dollar is also positive for the gold price trend.

Technical: From a technical perspective, when the daily chart is still negatively oscillating, the good recovery from a low of more than one month is near the 200-cycle simple moving average (SMA), that is, near the $3252-3255 area. This makes it prudent to wait for a strong follow-up buying before confirming that the decline of gold over the past week or so has ended and a new bullish movebet. Meanwhile, a weakness back below the $3200 mark may now find some support near the $3178-3177 area. Some subsequent selloffs may make gold prices prone to accelerate and slide back to overnight volatility lows, near the $3,120 area. The downward trajectory may extend further to the $3100 mark before heading to the next related support near the $3060 area. On the other hand, the $3252-3255 area may continue to be a direct obstacle. The continued strength may trigger a new round of short rebound and allow gold to recover the $3,300 mark. The latter should serve as a key point, if decisively cleared, can eliminate any recent negative bias and turn bias towards favoring bullish traders, paving the way for further upside.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading was around 61.98. Despite a slight increase last week, the crude oil market is still leaning towards short-term bearish. OPEC+'s growing physical supply risks and potential Iran agreement continue to limit upside potential. Oil prices are forecast to fall in the near term unless inventory drops sharply or demand rebounds strongly, with traders paying close attention to further developments in diplomacy and inventory.

Technical: From a technical perspective, upward bias is expected to occur when it continues to break through $63.06, and continue to recover from weakness at the fulcrum of $60.09.

Forex market trading reminder on May 19, 2025

①To be determined Domestic refined oil opens a new round of price adjustment window

②09:30 Monthly report on residential price prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China

③10:00 China's total retail sales of consumer goods in April year-on-year

④10:00 China's industrial added value above scale in April year-on-year

⑤11:00 Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun delivered a speech

⑥17:00 Eurozone's April CPI annual rate final value

⑦17:00 Eurozone's April CP The final value of the I month rate

⑧20:45 Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson delivered a speech

⑨20:45 Fed Williams delivered a speech

22:00 US April Consultative Conference Leading Index Monthly Rate

22:00 Trump has spoken with Putin, Zelensky and others in succession

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