The dollar index rebounds to around 99.50, and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting strike

On the Asian session on Wednesday, the US dollar index hovers around 99.48, and the rest of the week will be dominated by US data. The latest minutes of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) meeting will be released on Wednesday, with first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product growth data scheduled to be released on Thursday. Friday will end the trading week with the US Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation data in April, with markets hoping that key inflation indicators will continue to ease before the Trump administration’s tariff policies start to affect the main data sets.

Analysis of major currency trends

Dollar: As of press time, the U.S. dollar index hovers around 99.48, and is pushing upward as market participants react to weaker trade tensions. The market has gained new optimism from President Trump's decision to postpone the implementation of a 50% tariff on EU imports. Although the short-term rebound has brought some relief to the dollar bulls, the overall technical structure is still downward and the momentum indicator is still working hard to turn bullish. Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounded slightly after a decline last week, but was still below 50, indicating that buyers are not in control yet. Similarly, the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator is still in the negative range, and the signal line shows no signs of bullish crossing. The lack of confidence in both indicators suggests that despite the current rebound, the market still tends to sellers.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1341, and the euro/dollar currency pair fell below 1.1400 for the second consecutive day, subject to the reversal of the US dollar (USD) after the release of the consumer confidence reportThe push of the bullet. In addition, weak inflation data in France weakened the euro, trading at 1.1335 on Tuesday, down more than 0.40%. Financial market participants have fully expected the ECB to cut deposit facility rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2% at next week's monetary policy meeting. Technically, the EUR/USD is tilting upward, despite strong resistance at 1.1400. Monday's price movement formed an "inverted hammer" pattern, a candle chart pattern that indicates that the seller may be in control. However, further confirmation was needed at that time. As of press time, the pair had fallen below Monday's low of 1.1358, opening the door for lower prices. If the daily closing below this low, it may cause the EUR/USD to fall to 1.1300. The further downward support is at the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) 1.1267, followed by the 1.1200 level.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3516, GBP/USD cut its recent gains on Tuesday, ending a six-day streak, with the price trend falling from the 1.3600 mark after the pair hit a few-year high this week. Another wave of tariff negotiations driven by tariff negotiations underpinned the US dollar (USD) as the Trump administration returned its tariff threat again. Technically, the GBP/USD closed flat or rose for six consecutive trading days over the past week, almost regaining the 1.3600 mark. However, the market had to release pressure, with GBP/USD falling back to the 1.3500 area in the middle of the week.

Summary of news from the foreign exchange market

1. Trump: If Canada is "recruited", it can save $61 billion in Golden Dome defense funds

Trump said on TruthSocial that Canada hopes to join our very brilliant Golden Dome defense system. I told Canada that if they continue to be an independent but unequal country, (joining the Golden Dome system) will cost $61 billion, but if they become our beloved 51 state, they don't need to spend a penny. They are considering this proposal!

2. Florida signs a bill to recognize gold and silver as legal tender

On Tuesday local time, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed legislation to recognize gold and silver as legal tender in the state, he said the move was to protect Floridans from the depreciation of the dollar. The legislation creates a legal framework that recognizes certain gold and silver coins as Florida’s fiat currency and exempts them from disposal.com/">www.avaforexcn.comSales tax, regulates its custodians, and allows the arbitrary use of gold and silver coins in transactions (requires the legislature to approve the implementation rules). DeSantis said the bill authorizes payments for checks or payment institutions such as PayPal and accepts payments for gold and silver. DeSantis noted, "this means that these precious metals can once again start to function like real currencies, not just investment vehicles for the rich. "DeSantis also criticized the spending behavior of the US federal government, likening the dilemma of "DOGE and Musk" to "fighting the swamp." DeSantis said, "It was the end of May, and Congress did not implement a penny DOGE (budget) cut! DOGE fights the swamp, and so far, the swamp wins. ”

3. South African President: Trump agrees to the US attending the G20 Summit

South African President Ramaphosa recently said that US President Trump agrees to the US attend the G20 Leaders' Summit held in South Africa in November this year. Ramaphosa made a working visit to the United States from the 19th to the 22nd of this month and held talks with Trump at the White House on the 21st. In his weekly routine briefing on the 26th, Trump agreed that the US continues to play an important role in the G20, including the United States participating in Johnnet, South Africa later this year The G20 Leaders' Summit held in Sburg, when South Africa will hand over the status of the G20 as the rotating presidency to the United States.

4. There are additional conditions for the Japanese iron-making merger and acquisition case. The Trump administration is expected to obtain "gold stocks" of US steel

The US government is expected to obtain a "gold stock" right from US steel www.avaforexcn.companies, which is one of the conditions for the authorities to approve the Japanese iron-making acquisition of the steel www.avaforexcn.company. According to people familiar with the matter, this arrangement will give the US government a veto on the facts of the www.avaforexcn.company's specific decisions. Last Friday, Trump announced that Japan's iron-making and US steel reached a " Partnership, which includes $14 billion in new U.S. investment. It is still unclear the specific scope of the veto, and it is not clear whether the government has made a decision on the $14.1 billion acquisition. Two people familiar with the matter revealed that the deal submitted to the U.S. Foreign Investment www.avaforexcn.commission (CFIUS) and the president include the original all-cash acquisition price of $55 per share, and an additional $14 billion investment.

5. Mexico will begin review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement by the end of September or early October

Mexico Department of Economic Affairs President Marcelo Ebrard said on Tuesday that Mexico is expected to formally begin a planned review of a trilateral trade agreement with the United States and Canada at the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year. The US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) was negotiated during the first term of U.S. President Donald Trump, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2020, requiring the three countries to conduct a joint review six years later. Ebrard had previously said he expected the review to begin in the second half of this year, ahead of schedule. Trump has been pushing for a resumption of the agreement in advanceNegotiate and demand better terms of trade with all its business partners.

Institutional Views

1. Saxo Bank: The US Treasury Department needs to pay attention to the risks of the Japanese Treasury bond market

John Hardy, global head of macro strategy at Saxo Bank, pointed out in a report that the US Treasury Department should pay attention to the dynamics of the Japanese government bond market. The global head of macro strategy said: "Japan's Ministry of Finance is being forced to speed up its action because its debt situation is even more severe." He said it is impossible to tell whether the United States will eventually face a similar situation. Last week, Japan's ultra-long-term bond yields jumped, and investors expect the Ministry of Finance to adjust its bond issuance structure and turn to issuing more short-term bonds and reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds.

2. Economist: The recent rise in the pound is reasonable.

Ebury economist Enrique pointed out in a report that given the Bank of England's gradual interest rate cut, the recent rise in the pound is reasonable. He said that last week's inflation data was higher than expected, confirming the need for the Bank of England to be cautious about interest rate cuts. The UK is relatively free from US tariffs, the prospect of approaching relations with the EU, and the resilient demand for the UK economy, which also provides support for the appreciation of the pound.

3. Mitsubishi UF: There may still be room for the depreciation of the yen

Mitsubishi UF analyst Derek Halpenney pointed out in a report that the depreciation of the yen may be limited due to a sharp decline in Japan's long-term government bond yields. Market speculation that Japan is considering adjusting its bond issuance plan to support ultra-long-term bonds, an expectation that results in lower yields. Halpenney said there may still be room for the yen to depreciate given the extent of the decline in yields. But he also pointed out that the yen buying could reenter the exchange rate when the exchange rate weakens, given the weak dollar sentiment, President Trump’s unpredictable trade policy, and the prospect of the Federal Reserve’s possible rate cuts later this year.

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