The US dollar is below $99, pay attention to US-China negotiations and UK employment reports

On June 10, early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.96. On Monday, as investors closely monitored the Sino-US trade negotiations, the US dollar index fluctuated and fell, breaking the 99 mark during the session, and finally closed down 0.21% at 99.01. The yield on the US Treasury fell slightly, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closing at 4.478%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield closing at 4.012%. Thanks to the weakness of the US dollar, spot gold rebounded from the lows of more than a week that it hit earlier intraday, regaining all intraday declines, and finally closed up 0.47% to close at $3,325.7/oz; spot silver rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, finally closing up 2.17% to $36.76/oz. International crude oil continued its uptrend as hopes of easing trade tensions boosted demand outlook. WTI crude oil remained above $64/barrel and finally closed up 0.7% to $64.56/barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.62% to $66.78/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.96. The U.S. dollar index fell slightly on Monday, falling from its rebound highs last Friday, but still above the key technical support levels of 98.351 and 97.921. This moderate decline reflects a temporary rest of the dollar momentum, and the market has turned cautious before the Sino-US trade negotiations open in London. As the Fed is not expected to have a major policy change and global growth risks are linked to trade tensions, the US dollar trend is expected to maintain range volatility to the bearish tone before inflation data is confirmed and trade issues are resolved. Technically, if the US dollar index closes at 9Below the 9.00 level, it will move towards the nearest support level, i.e. in the 98.00–98.20 range.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1425. The euro/dollar rose on Monday, driven by optimistic market sentiment driven by high-level U.S.-China tariff negotiations held in the UK. This www.avaforexcn.combined with the rate cuts that the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen as a "hawkish" have brought the pair to a break of 1.1400. In the euro zone (EU), the economic schedule is scarce, but ECB officials, including German Federal Bank president Joachim Nager, ECB's Isabel Schnabel and Kazimir, said they should remain flexible in dealing with interest rates. Nager said the ECB should remain flexible in response to interest rates, and Schnabel pointed out that the ECB should not expect continued decoupling from the Fed. Kazimir turned hawkish, saying the central bank was almost or near the end of the easing cycle. Technically, if the EUR/USD successfully closes above resistance level 1.1410–1.1425, it will move to the next resistance level 1.1555–1.1570.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3556. The pound was under pressure against the US dollar during the North American period on Monday, trading around 1.353. The market is digesting a series of upcoming UK local data and global macro risk events, and overall volatility may be amplified. The current market is focusing on the upcoming UK employment and GDP data this week. The UK's unemployment rate forecast rose to 4.6% in April, a high since July 2021, which may intensify market concerns about a slowdown in the UK economy. At the same time, the average annual salary growth rate is expected to remain at 5.5%, and salary stickiness may strengthen inflationary pressure. Technically, RSI is still in a mild area, so there is a lot of room for power in the short term. If GBP/USD remains above the 1.3550 level, it will move towards resistance at 1.3620–1.3640.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Tuesday, gold trading around 3317.34. Gold prices rebounded 0.4% on Monday, closing at around $3,325.45 per ounce. This wave of gold price rise was not only driven by the weakening of the US dollar, but also closely related to Sino-US trade negotiations, global economic uncertainty and the heating of inflation expectations. The market is light today, with investors waiting for Friday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to assess the health of the U.S. economy and predict the Fed's rate cut trajectory.

Technical: The slight rebound in gold prices stems from the two-day decline last weekend. Although no significant bearish reversal signal has been shown, it has failed to hit a new high since its peak in April, indicating that downside risks are rising, and from a technical point of view, gold forecasts may shift from bullish to neutral or even slightly bearish, especially as risk appetite improves further. Of course, any weakness here does not mean the end of a long-term bull market. Currently, the support level of $3,300 is basically maintained. If this support is now broken, the situation will become more interesting, as there is no direct support to pay attention to before approaching the $3200 trend line. In other words, if it decisively falls below $3300, the gold price may fall $100 in a short period of time. By then, the mid-May low of $3,120 will be the focus, and if it falls below this level, there will be little middle support before the key support level of $3,000. However, before being too excited about the downside potential, remember that the technology trend is still bullish and we should not rule out the possibility of gold prices rising again. Therefore, pay close attention to the resistance level, because if the resistance level is not held, it will fully indicate that the bears lack control. The first resistance to watch is near the $3340 low ($3345), which was the low in the middle of last week, and Friday's upside break has cleared that level. These former support levels may now turn to resistance levels. After breaking through this area, $3,400 will be the focus again, followed by $3,430.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Tuesday, crude oil trading around 64.54. Oil prices hit a two-month high on Monday, boosted by a weaker dollar, while investors awaited news of trade talks in London, hoping a deal could boost global economic outlook and stimulate demand. In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has brought some support to oil prices. The dollar index fell 0.3%, making oil cheaper for investors holding other currencies.

Technical: The price is facing the key price of US$65, which has become an important juncture many times. To some extent (if you have a little flexibly understanding of the definition), this is the neckline position at the bottom of the head and shoulders. Although the shadow of the first shoulder extends all the way to the head, it is true to look at the solid part only and look at the bottom of the head and shoulders. In addition, the first shoulder and head form a double bottom shape. In either form, the market seems to be doing everything possible to reverse the trend and achieve a good rebound. From the daily level, oil prices are still hindered by $65. If it breaks through this level strongly, it may open upward space to $66 and is expected to retest $71. On the downside, the psychological support level of $60 is crucial. If it falls below $60, the more important thing is to fall below the $58 moving average, which may re-incite.Long-term bullish buying from $55 and $49. OPEC's willingness to manage supply near $5www.avaforexcn.com reinforces bullish sentiment, especially as the market enters a peak summer demand season.

Forex market trading reminder on June 10, 2025

①14:00 UK three-month ILO unemployment rate in April

②14:00 UK May unemployment rate

③14:00 UK May unemployment rate

④15:00 Switzerland May consumer confidence index

⑤16:30 Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence Index

⑥18:00 United States The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index in May

⑦ 00:00 the next day EIA released its monthly short-term energy outlook report

⑧ The next day 04:30 the U.S. to June 6th the week

The above content is about "[Ava Aihua official website]: The US dollar is below $99, pay attention to the US-China negotiations and the UK employment report". It was carefully www.avaforexcn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some content in the article still needs to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues: