Retail investors bet short on the US dollar and suffer bitter fruit? US dollar index may use favorable factors to impact key resistance

Asian Market Review

On Monday, as investors closely monitored Sino-US trade negotiations, the US dollar index fluctuated and fell, breaking the 99 mark during the session. As of now, the US dollar price is 99.14.

Los Angeles protests: California sued the Trump administration for transferring troops into Los Angeles, who threatened to arrest the governor of California, Musk publicly supported Trump's dispatch of troops, and Trump expressed his lack of desire for a civil war in the United States.

The US Department of Justice requires the court to extend the suspended period of Trump's verdict for invalid tariffs.

U.S. Congressional Budget Office: It is estimated that measures to avoid reaching debt ceilings will be exhausted between mid-August and late September.

The U.S. Senate plans to launch a major adjustment plan for the Trump tax reform bill this week. Trump announced a newborn savings plan, saving $1,000 for every child he gave birth.

Iranian Foreign Ministry: The US plan for the Iran nuclear agreement is "unacceptable"; the next round of Iran-US nuclear negotiations will be held on Sunday.

Iran issued a statement: If attacked by Israel, it will hit Israel's secret nuclear facilities. Japan's chief negotiator Ryo Akazawa plans to visit the United States this week.

Source said Japan will consider repurchasing some of its ultra-long-term government bonds.

Trump: He has not considered a meeting with Musk, and believes that Musk may want to hold talks with me.

Summary of institutional views

Mitsubishi UF:We continue to short the US and Japan, with the target price and stop loss price respectively...

We maintain the strategy of shorting the US and Japan. The tough ECB remarks last week, and U.S. job growth only slowed slightly, together drove U.S. Treasury yields and U.S.-Japan gains. A slowdown in employment growth is not enough to prompt the Fed to restart interest rate cuts, and inflation is expected to be further above target levels in the www.avaforexcn.coming months. Unless the June non-farm report shows a more significant easing in the U.S. labor market conditions, the Fed is more likely to wait until at least September to cut interest rates.

At the same time, the Bank of Japan is reportedly considering announcing a slowdown in its plan to reduce the size of Japan's Treasury bond purchases at its next meeting, which has led to some selling in the yen. However, we do not believe that the U.S. yield and the U.S.-Japan upward momentum can continue. We expect there is evidence that the U.S. economy is being hit by a greater negative impact from trade disruptions and increased policy uncertainty, which will drag down the U.S. and Japan. We chose to enter the market and short the US and Japan at 145.95, with a target price of 138.3 and a stop loss price of 149.4.

Bank U.S. technical analysis: The market should tolerate the dollar's fluctuations in... range this summer

Last week's non-farm data provided support for the dollar around year-to-date lows. The TD sequence indicator showed two systematic buy signals near the low point, and the RSI indicator also received support. If the US dollar rises further, MACD may cross upward in the next few trading days. The generally bearish dollar sentiment in the market is still at risk, while the volatility lows are still support. The market may be able to tolerate the fluctuation of the US dollar index in the range of 98-102. However, if the US dollar evolves into a double bottom pattern and breaks through 101.98, the US dollar index may rise to 105.5-106 this summer.

Support level: 98.25, 97.9, 96.25, 95

Resistance level: 100.65, 101.99, 102.6, 103.25, 104.05

XTB research director Kathleen Brooks: The UK's "bond police" will make a www.avaforexcn.comeback, and the US may face downward pressure

The UK focuses on Wednesday's Chancellor's spending review report. The report is expected to announce an increase in the National Health Service System (NHS) and defense spending, while cutting budgets in other areas such as welfare. Police, pensioners and some families may receive additional funds, which makes much-needed spending cuts extremely limited. The risk is that if the content of the report causes dissatisfaction in the bond market, the "bond police" may make a www.avaforexcn.comeback. Therefore, the Chancellor is expected to www.avaforexcn.commit to controlling spending, despite the pressure of strict adherence to fiscal rules (not expected to give up this week).

The core dilemma faced by the Chancellor is that the already high tax burden may suppress the momentum of economic growth, while spending is difficult to reduce and tax revenue is also difficult to increase. The bond market is highly sensitive to the issuance of new bonds. The current yields of 10-year and 30-year bonds in the UK are higher than the sameref="https://www.avaforexcn.com/">www.avaforexcn.comU.S. Treasury Secretary must ensure that the review results do not undermine the delicate balance of the bond market.

So, the upcoming UK employment report and April GDP data will be crucial for fiscal decision-making. If the data performs worse than expected, it may force the Chancellor to cut further expenditures. The weak economic data may also boost the probability of the Bank of England's decision to cut interest rates at its August meeting, thus informing the pound to give up its recent gains against the dollar.

We expect the UK's GDP monthly rate in April to be -0.1%, which was caused by a brief chaos caused by US tariff policies, resulting in stagnation in production in some industries. The three-month growth rate is expected to remain at 0.7%. However, as the United States and Britain reached a trade agreement in the near future, the UK's economic growth rate is expected to recover in the second half of this year.

Analysis of Goldman Sachs' key CPI sub-item, overall and core inflation are expected to rise both.

Overall CPI annual rate: 2.47%, overall CPI monthly rate: 0.17%; core CPI annual rate: 2.89%, core CPI monthly rate: 0.25%

We expect the core CPI monthly rate of the United States to rise by 0.25% in May, and the annual rate will rise to 2.9%. Our forecasts reflect the decline in used car prices (-0.5%), the slight increase in new car prices (+0.1%), and the car insurance category price increase by less (+0.4%) based on our online premium data.

While, based on the higher frequency price indicators, we expect tourism service inflation to be weaker for another month: we predict hotel prices and airfare prices will remain unchanged. We expect tariffs on particularly affected categories such as clothing, entertainment and www.avaforexcn.communications will bring moderate upward pressure, which will have a +0.05% impact on core inflation.

We expect net growth in housing sub-price will slow down (OER+0.31%; major rents +0.31%). We expect the overall CPI to rise by 0.17%, reflecting an increase in food prices (+0.4%) but a sharp drop in energy prices (-1.2%).

The above content is all about "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Retail investors bet short on the US dollar and make bitter fruit? The US index may use the benefit to impact the key resistance". It is carefully www.avaforexcn.compiled and edited by Aihua Avatrade Foreign Exchange Editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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