Wonderful introduction:
Optimism is the line of egrets that are straight up to the blue sky, optimism is the ten thousand white sails beside the sunken boat, optimism is the lush grass that blows with the wind on the head of the parrot island, optimism is the falling red spots that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.
Hello everyone, today Avatrade Avatrade Avatrade will bring you "[Ava Ava Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Controversial article reveals that Iran is seeking to end hostilities with Israel, focusing on the Bank of Japan resolution." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On June 17, spot gold trading was around 3395, and gold prices fell more than 1% on Monday as traders took profit after the gold price hit an eight-week high. At the same time, the market was concerned about tensions between Israel and Iran and the Fed's policy meeting this week; U.S. crude oil rose more than 1%, trading around $71.10 per barrel. Although oil prices fell more than 2% on Monday due to reports that Iran is seeking to end hostilities with Israel, Trump called on everyone to evacuate Tehran in the morning, increasing market uncertainty.
The dollar rose against the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc on Monday but weakened against most major currencies, with investors closely watching the battle between Israel and Iran looking for signs of a possible escalation into a larger regional conflict and awaiting meetings of several major central banks this week.
Tehran, however, has asked Gulf leaders to put pressure on U.S. President Trump to use his influence on Israel to promote a ceasefire in exchange for Iran's flexibility in nuclear negotiations. This helped the US dollar to some extent recover lost territory against the Japanese yen and Swiss francs.
Nevertheless, market participants are still considering the possibility that Iran may attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transport portal. This move may exacerbate the wider economic risks brought about by disruptions in oil supply in the Middle East.
At the same time, as tensions in the Middle East intensify, the US military has transferred a large number of tankers to Europe to provide Trump with options, and the US Nimitz aircraft carrier is also heading to the Central and Eastern Conference as scheduled.
Asian market
China's latest economic data in May paints a mixed picturescene. Industrial production grew by 5.8% year-on-year, lower than expected by 6.0%, reflecting the continued weakness of external demand. Previously, despite some tariffs lifted in mid-May, exports to the United States fell sharply year-on-year -34.5%. However, the full impact of tariff reduction is expected to be more obvious in June.
Retail sales, by contrast, were a highlight, up 6.4% year-on-year, higher than the 5.0% expectation. The government has supported the rebound by actively promoting consumer spending through its appliance and car trade-in programs. The Ministry of www.avaforexcn.commerce reported that the event has generated sales of more than 1.1m this year.
However, fixed asset investment remains a drag factor, with a year-on-year increase of only 3.7% year-on-year, www.avaforexcn.compared with an expected 3.9%. Real estate investment continued to be weak, down 10.7% in the first five months of this year, highlighting the ongoing pressure on the real estate industry.
Japanese Treasury Secretary Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday that he currently has no fixed plan to hold further talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent.
It was previously reported that U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba failed to reach a trade deal during the G7 summit.
European Market
The Swiss Federal Government Expert Group lowered its economic growth forecast, citing continued uncertainty in global trade and weak investment momentum. Adjusted GDP for sports events is currently expected to grow only 1.3% and 1.2% in 2025 and 2026, down from the 1.4% and 1.6% forecast in March.
These figures mean that the Swiss economy will continue a significantly below-average growth rate, even if the assumption that recent U.S. import tariffs are still limited to current levels and that the trade conflict will not escalate further.
Inflation forecast for 2025 has been lowered to only 0.1%. Inflation is expected to rebound to 0.5% by 2026.
In an interview with Reuters, ECB Deputy Governor Luis deGuindos downplayed concerns about returning to the era of ultra-low inflation in the 2010s, despite the recent strengthening of the euro. Dekindos acknowledged that these developments could drag down overall inflation, but stressed that “the risk of lower than inflation is very limited.” He insists that inflation risks are now “balanced.” The recent appreciation of the euro is neither rapid nor volatile, so at the 1.15 level “will not be a big obstacle”.
DeGuindos said it believes inflation will rebound after falling to 1.4% in the first quarter of 2026, citing the continued tight labor market and ongoing wage pressure. Payroll growth is expected to remain around 3%, supported by union demands. This is consistent with the ECB's medium-term outlook for returning inflation to its 2% target.
While there is no explicit support for the suspension of interest rate hikes, deGuindos said the market may be later this yearThe pricing for another rate cut is consistent with the latest information from ECB President Christine Lagarde.
“The market has fully understood what the president said is in a good position,” he noted, adding that investors are now correctly expecting the ECB easing cycle to be nearing its end.
Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB Management www.avaforexcn.committee of Germany, expressed a cautious tone at a meeting today, warning against locking in any specific policy paths under ongoing global uncertainty.
The market currently expects to cut interest rates only once by the end of the year. But Nagel refused to support this view, emphasizing the conditions for rapid development https://www.avaforexcn.com makes it unwise to promise in advance.
"We must pay close attention to the risks facing price stability," he said, noting in particular that the current developments in the Middle East are the source of increased uncertainty.
Nagel also conducted a pessimistic assessment of Germany's near-term outlook, predicting a stagnation in the second quarter and viewing the global trade war as a major drag. He estimates that escalating trade tensions could cause German economic growth to fall by as much as 0.75 percentage points in the medium term.
U.S. Market
U.S. President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of the Iranian capital Tehran on Monday, hours later urging the country's leaders to accept a deal to contain their nuclear program as Israel hinted that the attacks will continue.
"Iran should sign the 'Agree' I asked them to sign," Trump wrote on social media at the G7 Leaders' Summit in Alberta, Canada. "What a pity, it wasted human life. Simply put, Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. I said over and over again! Everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately!
The above content is about "[Ava Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The controversial article revealed that Iran is seeking to end hostilities with Israel, focusing on the Bank of Japan resolution" and was carefully www.avaforexcn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thanks for your support!
Due to the author's limited ability and time tightness, some of the content in the article still needs to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues: