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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Foreign Exchange]: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On June 19, 2025, the international foreign exchange market showed a www.avaforexcn.complex pattern under the interweaving of multiple factors. The following is a review of the core positive and negative news that affected the market on the day, www.avaforexcn.combining economic data, policy trends and geopolitical risks to provide investors with decision-making reference.
1. Central Bank policy trends: Interest rate resolution and monetary policy signals
1. The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, releasing hawkish risks
The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time at the June interest rate meeting, which is in line with market expectations. But the signal released by the dot chart has attracted attention: Although the market expects to cut interest rates twice this year, institutions such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have reminded that the Federal Reserve may revise its interest rate cut expectations to only once, releasing hawkish risks. Powell emphasized at a press conference that the policy "reliance on data" and mentioned that the situation in the Middle East, tariff policies, etc. have aggravated inflation and economic uncertainty, implying that if geopolitical risks push up inflation, interest rate cuts may be postponed to December. In addition, the Federal Reserve lowered its GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.4%, while raising inflation expectations to 3%, further strengthening the market's concerns about the risk of "stagflation".
2. The European Central Bank's interest rate cut cycle is www.avaforexcn.coming to an end, and policy expectations are heating up.
The European Central Bank announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on June 5, and the deposit mechanism interest rate fell to 2%, which is the seventh consecutive meeting to cut interest rates. The current inflation pressure in the euro zone has eased, with CPI reconciled in June 2.5% year-on-year, but core inflation is still stubborn (2.9%), and the service industry inflation is as high as 4.1%. The market generally believes that the European Central Bank has entered the stage of policy fine-tuning, and the frequency and amplitude of interest rate cuts in the future will be subject to global trade tensions and geopolitical risks. ECBGovernor Lagarde recently called for seizing the opportunities of the "global euro" and promoting the internationalization of the euro, emphasizing the need to consolidate the three pillars of geopolitical credibility, economic resilience and institutional integrity. This statement may provide long-term support for the euro, but it still needs to pay attention to the uncertainty of the policy path in the short term.
3. Policy differentiation of central banks in the UK, Norway and Türkiye
The Bank of England maintained the benchmark interest rate of 4.25% unchanged in the interest rate resolution on June 19, in line with market expectations. Despite the deterioration of employment market data (payment slips fell by 109,000 in May and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%), inflation pressure (CPI in April 3.5% year-on-year) still restricts the room for policy easing. The market expects the Bank of England to initiate a rate cut in August or the end of the year, but some internal differences are significant, and some members advocate a more cautious policy path. The Norwegian central bank announced a 50 basis point rate hike to 3.75% on the same day to cope with inflationary pressure. The Turkish central bank announced that from June 18, transactions of imported goods from China from the bank will be settled in RMB, a move that may increase the share of the RMB in cross-border trade and ease the pressure on the lira exchange rate.
2. Geopolitical risks: The escalation of the situation in the Middle East disturbs the market
1. The conflict between Iran and Israel continues to boost risk aversion
The conflict between Iran and Israel has entered its sixth day. Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei refused to “unconditional surrender”, warning the United States that it would suffer “irreparable losses” if military intervention was involved. The International Oil www.avaforexcn.company representative office in Basra, Iraq, was hit by a rocket, injuring three people, increasing market concerns about disruptions in energy supply. Affected by this, Brent crude oil futures price once exceeded $78 per barrel, and risk aversion sentiment drove the gold price to $3,420 per ounce. Geographical risk premiums rise, the US dollar is supported as a safe-haven currency, while risky currencies such as the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are under pressure.
2. The U.S.-Iran game has intensified tensions in the Gulf region
The Trump administration's tough stance on Iran continues to ferment. Trump said that it may join forces with Israel to crack down on Iran's nuclear facilities, but his vague statements have aggravated policy uncertainty. The Iranian military said it was fully prepared to welcome the enemy, with 3,600 medium-range ballistic missiles waiting to be launched, targeting the US military base in the Middle East. The market is concerned that the conflict spillover may lead to a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. JPMorgan Chase predicts that international oil prices may soar to $130 per barrel if such incidents occur.
3. Economic data and market sentiment: weak demand and capital flows
1. US economic data mixed
The US foreign capital net bought USD 123.3 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds in April, indicating the safe-haven demand of international capital for US dollar assets. However, the number of new home starts plummeted 9.8% in May to 1.256 million units (expected 1.35 million units), and building permits fell simultaneously, reflecting the suppression effect of high interest rates on the real estate market. The number of initial unemployment claims dropped slightly to 245,000 in the week ending June 14, and the number of continuous applicants dropped to 1.95 million, indicating marginal improvement in the labor market, butThe pace of corporate recruitment slows down. The market's differences on the Fed's policy path have caused the US dollar index to fluctuate around 98.69, and the technical side shows that the bullish momentum has subsided. If it falls below the 98.40 support level, it may fall below 98.03.
2. Eurozone's inflation stickiness restricts easing policies
The eurozone's reconciliation of CPI in June was 2.5% year-on-year, a slight decline from the previous value, but core inflation (2.9%) and service industry inflation (4.1%) remain stubborn. The Paris Olympics and summer tourism peak season approaches, which may further push up service prices and intensify downward pressure on inflation. European Central Bank officials spoke intensively during the day, Lagarde, Buch and others emphasized that policies need to "rely rely on data" and pay attention to the impact of trade frictions on the economy.
3. Capital flows and market risk aversion preferences
Affected by geopolitical risks and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, funds flow to US dollar assets. The U.S. Treasury yields rise, and the correlation between the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar index rebounds, which may provide rebound momentum for the U.S. dollar. In addition, the U.S. Senate passed the "Stablecoin Country Innovation Act", and Circle's stock price rose by more than 8%, reflecting the positive reaction of the cryptocurrency market to regulatory certainty.
4. Technical and market outlook: Key resistance and support level
1. US dollar index: The www.avaforexcn.competition between bulls and bears intensified
The US dollar index failed to stabilize at the 98.87 key resistance level on June 18 and fell back to around 98.69. The 200th EMA and the downward trend line formed a suppression. If it falls below the 98.40 support level, it may fall to 98.03 or even 97.69; the upward trend needs to effectively break through 98.87 to open up further room for further upward.
2. Euro/USD: Policy expectations dominate volatility
The euro/USD is under pressure after the European Central Bank cut interest rates, but Lagarde's statement on promoting the internationalization of the euro provides support. Technical aspects show that if the euro falls below the 1.07 mark, it may fall below 1.0650, and the upward trend needs to break through the 1.0750 resistance level.
3. Pound against the US dollar: Employment data drags down the outlook
Pound against the US dollar is affected by dovish expectations of the Bank of England and weak employment market. If it falls below the 1.25 support level, it may fall below 1.24, and the upward trend needs to break through the 1.26 resistance level.
5. Trading strategies and risk warnings
1. Short-term strategies
U.S. dollar: geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve hawkish signal support the US dollar, but weak economic data limits upward space. Pay attention to the breakthrough direction of the 98.40-98.87 range.
Euro: Policy shifts to a game of sticky expectations and inflation, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low in the range of 1.07-1.0750.
GBP: Be cautious about rebounds. If it falls below 1.25, you can short it lightly, with a target of 1.24.
www.avaforexcn.commodity currencies: The Canadian dollar and Australian dollar are affected by oil price fluctuations and risk preferences, and need to be wary of the pullback pressure after the intensified geopolitical risks.
2. Medium- and long-term attention
Federal policy path: Whether the dot chart will be revised up to rate cut expectations, and if the hawkish signal is released, it may boost the US dollar.
ECB policy shift: inflation data and progress in trade frictions determine the medium- and long-term trend of the euro.
Geopolitical risks: The escalation of the situation in the Middle East may continue to boost risk aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to the US dollar and gold.
3. Risk warning
Data and events: Pay attention to data such as U.S. durable goods orders on June 20, Federal Reserve Beige Book on June 21, etc.
Bank Policy: Speech by ECB officials and statements by Bank of England Governor Bailey may trigger market volatility.
Liquidity risk: The closing of the US market in June may lead to a decline in market liquidity and aggravate volatility.
In summary, on June 19, the foreign exchange market showed a volatile pattern under the multiple influences of central bank policy differentiation, geopolitical risk escalation and weak economic data. Investors need to pay close attention to the Fed's policy signals, progress in the Middle East situation and key economic data, and flexibly adjust their strategies to deal with market uncertainty.
The above content is all about "【Ihua Forex】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". It was carefully www.avaforexcn.compiled and edited by the Avatrade Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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