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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Four major events that will happen in the global market this week". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
How high will the tariffs rise? U.S. President Donald Trump's next move has concerns investors and may dominate the deal.
1) The threat of additional tariffs may provide buying opportunities
Any country that is consistent with BRICS anti-U.S. policies will be imposed on an additional 10% tariff. There will be no exception to this policy.
This statement from Trump has disturbed investors, who are once again aware of the desire of the www.avaforexcn.commander-in-chief to remain in the spotlight. Last weekend, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) issued a www.avaforexcn.communique condemning Trump's tariff policies, prompting Trump to strike back.
His statement is on top of another statement, with Trump pledging to announce tariffs on the country as early as Monday. These tariffs will www.avaforexcn.come into effect on August 1.
So far, the United States has reached a www.avaforexcn.complete trade agreement with the United Kingdom, reached a principled agreement with Vietnam, and reached a "trade truce" with China. Negotiations with Japan, Canada and the EU are very fierce, but seem far from over.
Will severe tariffs take effect soon and disrupt the global economy? Not yet. Back in April, Trump's "Liberation Day" statement hit the global market, but he suspended most of the tariffs in the following week, especially after turbulent bond markets.
Other major threats have also www.avaforexcn.come and gone in a hurry, creating buying opportunities. Wall Street calls it a deal that Trump always retreats (TACO deal).
Will recent history repeat itself?
2) The RBA is expected to cut interest rates for the third time this year
On Tuesday, GMT 4:30. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) joins global declineIt took some time before the interest rate cycle, but the pace of interest rate cuts is accelerating. Economists expect the RBA to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), from 3.85% to 3.60%.
Inflation in Australia is slowing, falling to 2.1% as of May. In addition, Australia's latest employment reports and retail sales failed to meet expectations.
China, Australia's largest trading partner, has successfully resisted US tariffs, but seems far from returning to the peak of growth that once had a strong demand for Australian metals.
The rate cuts have been mostly digested by the market, but www.avaforexcn.comIf RBA President Michelle Brock and his colleagues signal further rate cuts, they may still put pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD).
3) FOMC meeting minutes show that there is no rush to cut interest rates
Wednesday, GMT 18:00. How close is the Fed to cut interest rates? Thursday's June non-farm employment (NFP) report exceeded expectations, almost eliminating the possibility of a rate cut in July.
However, it is important to understand the Fed’s perception of the cost of borrowing. The minutes of the meeting are released three weeks after the decision, but will be revised at the last minute to enable officials to convey information to the market.
I expect a relatively hawkish tone, reflecting more concerns about rising prices than attention to the labor market. The impact of meeting minutes is often short-lived.
According to CMEFedwatch, the likelihood of a rate cut in July is low:
4) U.S. unemployment benefits applications may continue to decline
Thursday, GMT 12:30. The U.S. weekly initial unemployment benefits application is a barometer of the labor market. After hovering above 240K for a long time, the two most recent releases have dropped below that threshold, bringing optimism but are overshadowed by the Non-Farm Employment (NFP) report released on Thursday.
Will they continue to fall back to the 220K early range? This will be good news for the domestic and global economy. If it climbs above 240K again, it means that this decline is a one-time event and the optimism is too hasty.
The data applied for this time may have a disproportionate impact due to the fewer other data points.
Trading this week is trickier, as announcements and reports on tariffs may appear at unexpected moments. Deadlines remain mobile as well. Trading with caution.
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