Wonderful Introduction:
If the sea loses the rolling waves, it will lose its majesty; if the desert loses the dancing of flying sand, it will lose its magnificence; if life loses its real journey, it will lose its meaning.
Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Avatradescn Official Website]: Five major events that will happen in the global market this week". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Will US President Donald Trump reach an agreement or impose tariffs this week? Various economic data will www.avaforexcn.compete with headlines from the White House.
1. Trade war with the EU is temporarily avoided, focusing on deals with Asian countries
President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU (EU) on Friday, expressing his dissatisfaction with the old mainland and causing an impact on the market. He pushed the tariffs from June 1 to July 9 after talking to European www.avaforexcn.commission President Ursula von der Leyen over the weekend. We can expect more headlines.
In this context, the United States is negotiating with India, Japan and other Asian countries, all of which hope to maintain good trade relations with the United States and China. It's a subtle dance. Investors prefer lower tariffs and more liberal trade.
In addition to the country, the Supreme www.avaforexcn.commander also focuses on consumer electronics products - it is recommended to impose a 25% tariff on iPhones and tariffs on drugs.
Tariff headlines may appear at any time and affect market sentiment. The current market instinct is to buy on dips — especially after Trump’s sudden shift in the EU.
2. FOMC meeting minutes may reveal which Fed task is more worrying
Thursday, 02:00 Beijing time. Is the Fed more afraid of inflation or unemployment? The minutes of the bank's decision in early May may provide some clues. Worries about rising prices mean higher interest rates, while concerns about unemployment suggest lower borrowing costs.
I expect a hawkish tone to warn of inflation. Why?
It should be noted that the minutes of the meeting will be revised at the last minute and will take into account the cityfield reaction. Since the May 7 meeting, the United States and China have agreed to significantly reduce tariffs, reducing the possibility of a recession. However, most Chinese imports are still subject to a 30% tariff, which means higher inflation.
In addition, meeting minutes are often more hawkish than Fed statements, which are usually more balanced.
3. US GDP will confirm the first quarter contraction
Thursday, 20:30 Beijing time. Early tariffs have driven imports, and GDP fell in the first quarter despite strong consumption. This is the narrative when GDP data is first released. The updated estimate will confirm a 0.3% contraction.
If the data is unexpectedly raised to growth rather than contraction, it will boost market sentiment, and a deeper contraction will hurt it.
The personal consumption expenditure part will be paid attention to whether there will be a downward adjustment. In addition, changes in inventory data have changed from a drag on growth to a driving force for growth, which is equally important.
4. Core PCE may decline, providing hope for interest rate cuts
Friday, 20:30 Beijing time. The Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) report is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator because it adjusts consumer preferences faster. Although it was released late, it still has significant significance after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has been released.
The world's most powerful central bank focuses on core PCEs and eliminates volatile energy and food data. Core PCE remained stable in March, pointing to a decline. This time, a 0.1% month-on-month increase is expected, which may push April's year-on-year growth towards the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Core prices increased by 2.6% year-on-year in March.
5. Revised consumer confidence will further evaluate the response to tariffs
Friday, 22:00 Beijing time. How do Americans feel about the recent tariff development? On the one hand, lowering tariffs on Chinese imports may reduce anxiety, but these tariffs are still high and may have caused pain.
The University of Michigan’s revised April Consumer Confidence Index is expected to confirm an initial 50.8 reading, a lower score. In addition to headlines, investors will also focus on inflation www.avaforexcn.components, which have risen sharply. The first release shows increased concerns, with five-year inflation expectations rising to 4.6%, and one-year expectations as high as 7.3%. Sell in May and leave? The last week of the month began with positive market sentiment amid the backdrop of Trump’s tariff reversal. Although Monday was a bank holiday in the UK and the US, strong price movements hint at a volatile week.
The above content is all about "[Ava Aihua Official Website]: Five major events that will happen in the global market this week" and is by AihuaThe editor of Avatrade forex carefully www.avaforexcn.compiled and edited it, hoping it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some content in the article still needs to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues: