EU plans to speed up tariff negotiations after threats, consumer confidence indicators become the focus

On May 27, in the early Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.82. On Monday, the dollar index continued to fall below the 99 mark and finally closed down 0.15% at 98.95 after Trump's big policy turn and the www.avaforexcn.comprehensive spending and tax cut bills he is currently pushing. As Trump suspended high tariffs on the EU, the market's risk aversion sentiment declined, spot gold fell at the opening and fell below $3,330 during the session, but recovered some of the lost ground in the US session and finally closed down 0.42% at $3,342.01 per ounce. Spot silver closed up 0.01% to $33.47 per ounce. Oil prices remained stable on Monday, and it was reported that OPEC+ will hold a meeting on May 31, a day ahead of schedule. ?WTI crude oil fluctuated back and forth above $61, and finally closed down 0.29% at $61.33/barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.45% at $64.12/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.82. The brief pullback from the daily high www.avaforexcn.comes as the dollar gains some support over hopes of easing U.S.-EU trade tensions, the dollar index remains stable around 99.00, recovering from four-week lows. The U.S. economic agenda will include April durable goods orders, minutes of the Federal Reserve's Open Market www.avaforexcn.committee (FOMC) meeting, the second estimate of GDP in the first quarter of 2025, and the release of the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. Technically, if the US dollar index rebounds above the support level of 99.00–99.20, it will go to 9.9.50 horizontal movement.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1401. The euro/dollar started strongly this week, but cut some early gains after hitting a four-week high of 1.1420, which was affected by a reversal of U.S. President Donald Trump's June 1 decision to impose tariffs on the EU (EU). The euro/dollar will continue to be driven by economic data. The EU's economic agenda will include data on Gfk consumer confidence, employment and retail sales in Germany. Inflation data for Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the EU will be released. Technically, the nearest resistance level of the EUR/USD is in the range of 1.1410–1.1425. If the EUR/USD climbs above the 1.1425 level, it will go to the next resistance range of 1.1555–1.1570.

GBP: As of press time, the UK is hovering around 1.3580. ?GBP/USD surged to 1.3593 in early Monday. Despite ease in trade tensions, the pound has been bullishly supported by stronger-than-expected domestic data last week. Looking ahead, the pound could take clues from speeches by Bank of England officials as there are no major economic data released this week, which could provide new insights into the central bank's policy stance. Technically, if GBP/USD closes above resistance level 1.3620–1.3640, it will move to the next resistance level 1.3720–1.3740. RSI is in the overbought area, so the risk of a callback is increasing.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Tuesday, gold trading around 3345.51. Gold prices fell to around $3,324 on Monday, but rebounded quickly under the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the support of buying on dips, and finally closed at $3,342.23, down only a slight decline of 0.5%. This relatively firm trend exposes the special resilience of gold as a safe-haven asset. This trading day will also release the initial monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in April, and investors need to pay attention.

Technical: From a technical perspective, gold prices still have room for further upward, because although they are relatively strong on the 14thThe index (RSI) has recently declined, but the indicator remains firmly above the midline, close to 57. If buyers fight back and gain control, gold prices need to continue to break through the downtrend line resistance at $3364/ounce to resume a sustained upward trend. After this, the next obstacle to gold price is at $3400/ounce (integral level) and $3435/ounce (static resistance). On the downside, strong support for gold is around $3295 per ounce, which is the confluence of the 21st simple moving average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the record rebound in April. If the correction trend strengthens, it will be inevitable that gold price tests the 50% Fibonacci support at $3232/ounce; once it falls below this support level, the 50-day moving average at $3207/ounce will play a supporting role.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Tuesday, crude oil trading around 61.16. Geopolitical risks are vaguely visible: Democrats' concerns that the US and Gulf countries' artificial intelligence transactions may leak to Russia or other countries, which may trigger bearish reactions; and the conflict between Israel and Iran may affect oil supply, which may push up the upside risk. Currently, the market is focusing on summer demand and final GDP data released by the U.S. on Thursday.

Technical: From a technical perspective, crude oil is still fluctuating in a resilient horizontal range, with strong support between $55 and $58, and the key resistance range is between $63 and $65. Momentum indicators are mixed: the daily relative strength index (RSI) remains neutral, and both rise and fall are possible. Weekly Stochastic Index (SI) rebounded significantly from extreme levels in 2020, suggesting potential bullish potential.

Forex market trading reminder on May 27, 2025

①14:00Germany June Gfk Consumer Confidence Index

②14:00Swiss April Trade Account

③14:45France May CPI Monthly Rate Early Value

④17:00Eurozone May Industrial Prosperity Index

⑤17:00Eurozone May Economic Prosperity Index

⑥18:00UK May CBI Retail Sales Difference

⑦20:30UK April Durable goods orders monthly rate

⑧21:00 US March FHFA House Price Index Monthly rate

⑨21:00 US March S&P/CS20 large cities without seasonal adjustment of annual rate

⑩22:00 US May Consulting Chamber of www.avaforexcn.commerce Consumer Confidence Index

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