The dollar index fluctuates and falls, and the market is waiting for the results of trade negotiations

Intraday of Asian trading on June 10, the US dollar index hovered around 99, and the US dollar weakened against most major currencies on Monday, fluctuating in a narrow range as market participants consolidated the rise after the announcement of last Friday's better-than-expected U.S. employment report and turned their focus to crucial economic and trade consultations held in London.

Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, Toronto, said the dollar is falling and the momentum is weakening put downward pressure on trading ranges and implicit volatility indicators. Investors believe that the positive news from trade negotiations has been largely digested by major currency pairs, with inflation data expected to be weak on Wednesday, and even Thursday's 30-year Treasury bidding will be strongly sought after by investors. "

The U.S. May inflation report will be the focus later this week, with investors and Fed policymakers paying attention to the impact of trade restrictions on the economy.

Fed officials have said they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates and signs of economic recovery may consolidate their position.

Federal officials have said they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates and that signs of economic recovery may consolidate their position.

Federal futures prices show that interest rate futures prices show that investors expect the Fed to be at this time, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). Lending costs by 25 basis points later in the year, possibly as early as October. Interest rate futures price the 2025 rate cut by just 47 basis points.

Asian Market

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated to parliament today that interest rate hikes will continue once the central bank is “more confident that potential inflation will approach 2% or hover around that level”, but be cautious.

UedaExplained that the Bank of Japan still maintains negative real interest rates to support inflation momentum and ensure price growth remains stable and sustained.

However, Ueda also pointed out that if the economic situation deteriorates, policy space will be significantly limited. With short-term policy interest rates still only 0.5%, the BoJ has “limited” room for any sharp decline in growth.

The Australian NAB Business Confidence Index turned positive in May, rising from -1 to 2. However, the improvement of confidence does not match the basic business situation, which further weakens. The Business Condition Index fell from 2 to 0, the trading situation fell slightly from 6 to 5, the profitability was still in a loss state of -4, and the employment situation fell from 4 to 0 - all of which indicate a stagnation in the environment.

In terms of inflation, the cost indicators are mixed. Labor cost growth remained stable with a quarterly equivalent rate of 1.7%. Procurement costs and final product price growth slowed to 1.1% and 0.5% respectively. Retail price growth stabilized at 1.2%, indicating that margin pressure continued. NAB chief economist Sally Auld stressed that business conditions remain weak and warned that continued weakness could limit any recovery in confidence. She also labeled the labor market as a key area to monitor, with the employment index currently below average.

European Market

Escliva, President of the Bank of Spain and member of the European Central Bank Management www.avaforexcn.committee, said that the current benchmark assumptions guiding the European Central Bank's monetary policy may require adjustments. In an interview with The National on Sunday, he pointed out: "In an environment full of uncertainty, it is crucial to maintain policy flexibility. The benchmark scenario we are currently using - GDP growth of about 1% and inflation rate 2% - may require some fine adjustments if verified by data." He specifically mentioned that part of the uncertainty stems from the policy direction of US President Trump, which may lead to two-way fluctuations in inflation. Eskriva expressed "high agreement" with the ECB's progressive strategy, emphasizing that the strategy is "based on a continuous assessment of the data and does not promise any interest rate path in advance."

U.S. Market

Los Angeles protests: California sued the Trump administration for transferring troops into Los Angeles, who threatened to arrest the governor of California, Musk publicly supported Trump's dispatch of troops, and Trump expressed his lack of desire for a civil war in the United States.

The US Department of Justice requires the court to extend the suspended period of Trump's verdict for invalid tariffs.

Trump: He has not considered a meeting with Musk, and believes that Musk may want to hold talks with me.

U.S. Congressional Budget Office: It is estimated that measures to avoid reaching debt ceilings will be exhausted between mid-August and late September.

The U.S. Senate plans to launch specialTrump's tax reform bill has major adjustments.

Trump announced a newborn savings plan, saving $1,000 for every child he gave birth.

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