Federal Reserve officials are intensively venting news, may OPEC+ suspend production increase in October? Gold falls into turmoil

On July 11, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.82. On Thursday, the US dollar index rose first and then fell, and it approached the 98 mark before the US session, but then gave up most of the gains and finally closed up 0.1% to 97.55. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.351%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.885%. Spot gold fluctuated back and forth near the $3320 mark, finally closing up 0.32%, closing at $3324.43/ounce; spot silver continued to rise during the day, finally closing up 1.7%, at $36.98/ounce. The two oils fell 2% during the session as investors weighed the potential impact of US President Trump's tariff measures on global economic growth. WTI crude oil continued to fall during the day, falling to an intraday low of $65.53 intraday, and finally closed down 2.1% at $65.78/barrel; Brent originally closed down 1.90% at $68.15/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 97.82. So far, Trump has announced new tariff rates on 21 countries. Fed Waller is expected to support rate cuts at a policy meeting later this month. Technically, the successful testing of the recent resistance level 98.00–98.20 will push the US dollar index to the next resistance level, that is, in the 99.20–99.40 range.

Euro: As of press time, Euro/USD is hovering around 1.1704. The number of initial unemployment claims in the past week was lower than expected and previous values, indicating a stronger data. Nevertheless, ongoing claims have risen to the highest level since 2022. Technically, if this attempt is successful, Euro/USD will move towards the next support level 1.1575–1.1590.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3584. Earlier this week, market sentiment recovered from a new tariff plight, but investors continued to hope for a widespread cancellation (or further suspension) of tariffs threatened by US President Donald Trump. Technically, if GBP/USD remains above 1.3550, it will move towards resistance at 1.3620–1.3640. RSI is in a moderate area and has a lot of room for power in the short term.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Tuesday, gold hovered around 3325.96. Data disclosed by the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States is lower than the estimated value and previous values, indicating a stable economy. Therefore, optimism among market participants is still high, limiting the rise of gold, and the rise of gold is also under pressure from the high yields of US Treasury bonds.

Technical: Gold price uptrends still exist, although buyers are working to push up prices as they are limited by the 20-day and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near $3345 and $3319, respectively. The relative strength index (RSI) is flat, hovering at neutral levels, indicating further consolidation in the future. Therefore, the first resistance of gold will be $3319. A breakout through the latter will put the 20-day SMA at $3345, then $3350 and $3400. Conversely, if gold falls below $3300, the first support level Will be the June 30 low of $3246. Then the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) is at $3185, followed by the May 15 low of $3120.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Tuesday, crude oil trading was around 65.74. WTI prices plummeted due to concerns about OPEC+'s August increase in production, unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and intensified U.S. tariff pressure. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to increase their total crude oil output by 548,000 barrels per day at a meeting on July 6 (bpd), and continue to cancel a series of voluntary production cuts. The group had previously announced a 411,000 barrels rate hike per day in May, June and July, which is three times faster than originally planned. The super-large production surge has sparked concerns about oversupply, which could weigh on WTI prices in the near term.

Technical: If WTI oil price closes below the support level of $66.00 to $66.50, it will move towards the next support level of $62.00 to $62.50.

Forex market trading reminder on July 11, 2025

①14www.avaforexcn.com:00 UK's three-month GDP monthly rate in May

②14:00 UK's May manufacturing output monthly rate

③14:00 UK's May seasonally adjusted www.avaforexcn.commodity trade account

④14:00 UK's May industrial output monthly rate

⑤14:45 France's June CPI monthly rate final value

⑥15:00 Switzerland 6 Monthly Consumer Confidence Index

⑦16:00 IEA released its monthly crude oil market report

⑧20:30 Canadian employment in June

⑨The next day 01:00 the total number of oil drilling rigs in the week from the United States to July 11

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