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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Ava Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Can CPI data promote the US dollar's breakthrough? The key moving average suppression and overbought signals are deeply disassembled." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Aihua Foreign Exchange APP News - Tuesday (May 13), the foreign exchange market entered the consolidation stage after violent fluctuations at the beginning of the week. Washington's policy reassessment triggered a sell-off wave between the yen and the Swiss franc, while the US dollar index showed a short-term stalemate in the interweaving of bulls and bears. The current market focus is turning to the core CPI data for April to be released today. Its stickiness expectations (0.3% month-on-month) may further consolidate the 60-minute chart: short-term oscillation is weak, pay attention to the effectiveness of support. Judging from the 60-minute chart, the three tracks of the Bollinger Band show a slight expansion (upper track 101.8924, middle track 101.6619, lower track 101.4301), and the current quotation 101.5422 is located below the middle track, with an intraday decline of 0.25%. In the moving average system, the distance between the red 26-period moving average (101.6462) and the green 12-period moving average (101.5932) narrows, and the price range runs between the two, indicating that the long and short forces are balanced in the short term but the shorts have a slight advantage. If the price continues to be under pressure at the 12-period moving average, it may further fall into the support near 101.43 of the lower track of the Bollinger band; if it effectively falls below, it may trigger short-term short-term short momentum momentum, and the target is pointing to the range of 101.2-101.3. The RSI14 indicator (54.3121) is at the upper edge of the neutral range, indicating that market sentiment has not yet entered a unilateral state, but the bulls are inadequate. www.avaforexcn.combined with the Bollinger band mid-rail suppression, the short-term trend tends to oscillate downward test support rather than rapid reversal. If the price unexpectedly rebounds and stabilizes at the 12-period moving average,It is possible to explore the middle track 101.66 or even test the upper track 101.89, but fundamental data is required to form a breakthrough. 4-hour chart: The medium-term bulls dominate, beware of the risk of overbought pullback. The 4-hour technical pattern is in contrast to the 60-minute chart: the Bollinger band opening is expanded (upper rail 102.1366, middle rail 100.9016, lower rail 99.6673), the quotation 101.5422 is located above the middle rail, indicating that the medium-term trend is relatively strong. The green 12-period moving average (101.2310) crosses the red 26-period moving average (100.6118), forming a "golden cross" signal, implying that the medium-term upward inertia is still continuing. However, the RSI14 indicator (70.1544) has entered the overbought area, and the pressure of a technical pullback is gradually accumulating. If the price can gain support near the 12-period moving average (101.23), it is expected to accumulate strength to attack the Bollinger band upper rail 102.14, and even challenge the key resistance in the 102.60 area. However, if the RSI indicator turns downward and the price falls below the 12-period moving average, it may cause profit-taking, and the first target of the pullback points to the middle track 100.90. In extreme cases, it may test the 26-period moving average of 100.61. It should be noted that the continuity of the medium-term upward channel depends on whether the fundamentals can continue to provide momentum. If the CPI data exceeds expectations, it may push the US dollar to break through the current oscillation range. Fundamental Drive: Dual Game of Policy and Data. A well-known institution pointed out that the Federal Reserve's terminal interest rate has been repriced from 3.00% to 3.50%, and the market's cooling of interest rate cut expectations provides the underlying support for the US dollar. If the core CPI data for April released today meets the expectations of "sticky inflation", it will further weaken the possibility of the Federal Reserve's easing policy in the short term, thereby consolidating the advantage of the US dollar interest rate. In addition, the phased easing of trade relations has eased market concerns about the escalation of trade frictions, but this factor has limited effect on the suppression of the US dollar, as risk aversion sentiment declines, the trend of funds returning to US assets may be temporarily suspended rather than reversed. It is worth noting that the narrowing of the 10-year swap spread in the United States reflects the rebound in market's short-term confidence in government credit, which may curb the large-scale selling of the US dollar. However, analysts generally believe that the current rebound of the US dollar is more of a bear market correction than a trend reversal. If
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