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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Avatradescn]: Trade negotiations return to the horizon, Powell reiterates that he is not in a hurry. What kind of stir will the non-agricultural www.avaforexcn.community cause next week?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
After the United States intervened in the conflict between Israel and Iran and led to a ceasefire agreement, the market was once again shrouded in positive sentiment. This news drove the US stock market to soar sharply this week, setting a new record high again.
The Nasdaq hit a record high on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 followed its "tech brother" yesterday. Before market sentiment suddenly changed in the late trading, U.S. stock investors were immersed in the joy of entering a bull market.
At the beginning of this week, the US dollar rose for a while due to the news of the US intervention in the Israeli-Iran conflict, but with the signing of the ceasefire agreement, market sentiment improved, and the US dollar gave up all the gains and fell below 97 at one point, hitting a new low since March 2022; the euro-dollar exchange rate performed the best so far this year, up about 13%, and hitting a new high since September 2021 on Friday; the pound-sterling-dollar broke through its previous high on Thursday, setting a new high since October 2021.
Forex Market:The US dollar index was under pressure overall this week, closing at 97.25, down 1.54%, closing in the negative line for seven consecutive trading days, briefly breaking the 97 mark at the lowest point, setting a new low since March 2022 in the middle of the week. The main reasons for the decline of the US dollar include: frequent dovish remarks within the Federal Reserve, the situation in Iraq and Israel eased and suppressed safe-haven buying, and media rumors that Trump considered the Fed's "shadow master's seat." In terms of non-US currencies, both the euro and pound rose to three and a half years against the dollar due to weak performanceSince its highs, the dollar fell sharply against the yen this week.
Gold Market:Spot gold recorded a second consecutive week of decline in risk aversion and suppression of Powell's speech, closing at $3,274.46 per ounce. Even though Friday's PCE data increased the market's expectations for three interest rate cuts this year, gold prices still failed to gain support. Silver performed relatively strongly, hitting a high of $36.81 per ounce on Thursday, approaching its monthly high, and fell on Friday, and overall declined slightly this week. In addition, spot platinum jumped to its highest level since 2014 at the middle of the week as concerns about supply grew.
Crude oil market: International oil prices fell sharply this week, with the two oils falling by more than 12%. On Monday and Tuesday, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil suffered heavy losses, as Iran only retaliated against the United States and subsequently reached a ceasefire in Iran and Israel. The market quickly priced the Middle East and eased tensions; on Wednesday and Thursday, the market refocused on the demand side, with the decline in US inventory and the arrival of driving season providing support, and oil prices stopped falling and stabilized.
Review of the weekly news Powell reiterated his "data dependence" position, and interest rate cuts in July remain variables Feder Chairman Powell emphasized at a congressional hearing this week that interest rate cuts will not be cut rashly until the economic data from June to August are clear, and the current policy is in the "moderately restrictive" range. He specifically pointed out that the actual impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation needs to be evaluated (the core PCE has risen to 2.7%), and the shrinking state of GDP in the first quarter revised down to -0.5% exacerbated the policy dilemma. Some differences within the Fed are obvious Dove camp: Vice Chairman Bowman and Director Waller support interest rate cuts in July, worrying about labor market risks Wait and watch: San Francisco Fed Daly tends to take action in autumn, Boston Fed Collins asks for more data Hagio voice: Richmond Fed Balkin believes that the current policy positioning is still appropriate Political pressure escalates The Wall Street Journal disclosed that Trump plans to nominate "Shadow Fed Chairman" in advance, and potential candidates include former Director Wash. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has raised systemic risk concerns by relaxing bank eSLR requirements (capital threshold is reduced to 3.5%-4.5%). The conflict results are in their own opinion Under the mediation of the United States, Iraq and Israel reached a ceasefire, but the last round of fire exchange still occurred before it came into effect (Iran launched 14 missiles, and the Israeli army destroyed the Tehran radar station). Israel claims Iran's nuclear program "retraces years", but U.S. intelligence assessments show that core capabilities have been damaged for only a few months. The nuclear non-proliferation system faces challenges The Iranian parliament passes a bill to suspend cooperation with the IAEA, which will violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if implemented. Trump claims to "destroy Iran's nuclear facilities", but revealsThe dialogue was restarted, while the Iranian Foreign Ministry flatly denied the negotiation plan. The sanctions game continues The US side was exposed to consider unfreezing $6 billion in Iranian funds in exchange for nuclear restrictions, but Trump immediately denied it. Analysts believe that the financing plan of the 30 billion Arab allies may be a potential breakthrough. Chinese brokerage firms enter cryptocurrency Guotai Junan International has obtained a full license for virtual assets in Hong Kong, and its stock price soared 200% in a single day, driving abnormal movements in stablecoin concept stocks. BIS reports warn that stablecoins have triple defects of "singleness-elasticity-integrity". Tesla's European crisis deepened Under the background of the EU electric vehicle market growing by 27% in May, Tesla's sales fell by 27.9% against the trend, and its market share shrank to 1.2%. Chinese brands (such as SAIC) and Germans (such as BMW) are accelerating their market share. NATO's defense spending doubled Members agree to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 (core 3.5% + additional 1.5%), but Spain and other countries boycotted due to debt pressure, and Trump threatened trade retaliation. Countdown to the tariff war between Europe and the United States If no agreement is reached before July 9, EU tariffs on the United States may soar to 50%. Focus of the differences: The EU refuses to cancel digital taxes and food standards The United States demands the opening of agricultural product markets Trump pressures Canada (threatening tax increases within 7 days) and India (called a "big agreement"), and the negotiation strategy shows the characteristics of "breaking one by one". The above content is about "[Ava Avatrade Foreign Exchange]: Trade negotiations return to the horizon, Powell reiterates that there is no rush. What kind of stir will the non-agricultural farmers cause next week?" is carefully www.avaforexcn.compiled and edited by Avatrade Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thanks for the support! Life in the present, don’t waste your current life in missing the past or looking forward to the future.
1. Fed policy trends: Differences in expectations of interest rate cuts intensified
2. The situation in the Middle East: the nuclear shadow after the ceasefire of Iraq and Israel
3. New trends in the financial market
4. Major adjustments to international relations