OPEC+ plans to increase production in August to drag oil prices, U.S. reaches trade deal with G7 members, gold hits a new month low

Basic news

On Monday (June 30, Beijing time), spot gold fell, trading around $3,268.70/ounce, a month-long low. Optimistic trade news boosted risk appetite and weakened the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset; U.S. crude oil fell more than 1%, trading around $64.80/barrel. Tensions in the Middle East were eased and optimistic trade news boosted demand expectations, and OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, dragging down oil prices.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks continued to rise last Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record closing highs, and the trade deal hopes to boost investors' risk appetite, and economic data helped consolidate expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates.

Stock markets shrank gains after U.S. President Trump stopped trade talks with Canada over the imposition of digital taxes on technology www.avaforexcn.companies. Even so, the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose on the weekly basis. The Nasdaq Index, a major technology stock market, hit a record closing high and was confirmed to enter a bull market after hitting the "Liberation Day" low on April 8. The blue chip Dow remains 2.7% lower than the record closing high set on December 4.

Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon InvestmentServices, said the market has been quite resilient and investors are taking advantage of the trend to seek breakthroughs. They don't want to take the wrong direction in this matter, and many investors have missed the opportunity. Now, the S&P 500 is approaching a record high. ”

The U.S. Department of www.avaforexcn.commerce’s personal consumption expenditure report showed that consumer income and expenditure unexpectedly shrank in May. Although tariffs have not yetAffecting prices, but inflation still hovers above the Fed's 2% target.

A report from the University of Michigan confirmed that consumer confidence improved this month, but is still far below the level it jumped to after the December election.

Finance markets expect the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time this year in September, with a 76% chance of a rate cut as early as July, according to the Chicago www.avaforexcn.commodity Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool.

Trump said that the July 9 deadline he set was not fixed. He said this date may be advanced or delayed. If a deal is not reached, the United States will re-implement wider tariffs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent said that the Trump administration's trade agreements with 18 major trading partners may be www.avaforexcn.completed before the Labor Day holiday on September 1.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.00% to 43819.27 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.52% to 6173.07 points; and the Nasdaq rose 0.52% to 20273.46 points.

The consumer discretionary sector gained the largest percentage of the S&P 500, while energy stocks underperformed.

The optimistic financial forecast of chip maker Micron Technology has revitalized investors' confidence in AI-related stocks, with Nvidia rising 1.8% with a market value of nearly $4 trillion, regaining its position as the world's highest-capital www.avaforexcn.company.

Gold market

Gold prices fell 2% last Friday, hitting their lowest in the past month, with optimistic trade news boosting risk appetite and weakening the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset. Spot gold fell 1.5% to $3,277.17 per ounce, down 2% earlier, hitting its lowest since May 29, down 2.8% last week, the second straight week of decline. The settlement price of US gold futures fell 1.8% to $3,287.6.

The ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel was maintained, although there were some frictions at the beginning. In terms of data, U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly fell in May as the effect of snapping up goods such as cars before the Trump administration imposed tariffs, while monthly inflation remained at a moderate pace.

After the data was released, traders increased their bets that the Fed would reduce short-term borrowing costs by 75 basis points in 2025, and it is likely to start action in September. Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said the data did not affect gold prices, and the sell-off was caused by geopolitical factors.

Spot silver fell 1.4% to $36.10, while platinum fell 5.3% to $1,341.57, and the balance between the two will rise weekly. Palladium rose 0.5% to $1,137.92, with the weekly trend rising for the second consecutive week.

Oil market

Oil prices rebounded slightly last Friday after reports that OPEC+ plans to be in 8The monthly increase in production caused oil prices to fall at midday. But despite this, oil prices fell by about 12% last week, the biggest single-week drop since March 2023.

Brent crude oil futures closed at $67.77 per barrel, up 0.1%. U.S. crude oil closed at $65.52 a barrel, up 0.4%.

Four representatives from OPEC+ said the organization plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, after planning to implement a similar scale in July. OPEC+ includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies. "As soon as the report on OPEC production increases came out, prices collapsed," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, of the midday decline. Oil prices fell more than 12% last week after the ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

In the 12-day war that began after Israel attacked Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13, Brent crude oil prices briefly rose to more than $80 a barrel, but fell to $67 a barrel after U.S. President Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Baker Hughes said that as a leading indicator of future output, the number of U.S. oil and gas rigs has declined for the fourth consecutive month, falling to its lowest since October 2021. The number of oil rigs fell by 6 last week to 432, the lowest level since October 2021.

Foreign Market

The dollar recovered its earlier decline against the euro last Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. would end trade talks with Canada and would consider bombing Iran again, which hit risk appetite and caused stocks to fall.

ForexLive chief currency analyst Adam Button said: "In summary, these two news highlights how capricious Trump is, and any assumptions in the market may be destroyed instantly. The market's instinctive reaction is to buy the dollar, but once the dust settles, this trend is likely to pull back. The trade war has been posing a drag on the dollar throughout the year."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent said earlier last Friday that various trade agreements between the Trump administration and other countries may be www.avaforexcn.completed before the Labor Day holiday on September 1.

However, the Canadian dollar widened its decline on the day after Trump said the U.S. would immediately end trade talks with Canada in response to the country's imposition of digital services tax on technology www.avaforexcn.companies. The Canadian dollar fell 0.5% against the dollar to 1.37 CAD.

Trump also sharply criticized Iran's supreme leader Khamenei, abandoning plans to lift sanctions on Iran, and said he would consider bombing Iran again if Tehran's uranium enrichment reaches worrying levels.

Earlier last Friday, the dollar fell to a three-and-a-half low against the euro, as traders bet that the Fed would cut more rates and that it may have been earlier than expected as some U.S. data shows the economy is weakening.

A report last Friday showed that U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly fell in May, as the boost from rushing to buy goods such as motor vehicles before tariffs were imposed, while monthly inflation growth remained modest.

The weekly employment report released last Thursday showed that the number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits rose to the highest level since November 2021, while the GDP data for the first quarter reflected a sharp decline in consumer spending.

Federal Chairman Powell's testimony in the U.S. Congress last week was interpreted as dovish because he pointed out that if inflation does not rise this summer as he expected, interest rate cuts could be possible.

There are reports that U.S. President Trump may also appoint Powell's successor in the www.avaforexcn.coming months, exacerbating the weakness of the dollar.

The new Fed chairman is expected to be more dovish, and the early appointment may serve as a shadow chair before Powell's term ends in May, thereby weakening Powell's influence. The Fed's interest rate cut will reduce the US dollar's interest rate advantage over other currencies. Traders are expected to cut interest rates by 65 basis points by the end of the year, up from the 46 basis points estimated a week ago.

The US dollar index did not change much on the day, at 97.36 points, down 1.40% last week, its worst performance since May 19.

The euro rose 0.05% against the US dollar to $1.1705, hitting a high of $1.1754, the highest since September 2021. The euro achieved a weekly increase of 1.57%, the best since May 19.

The pound weakened by 0.19% to $1.3701, achieving a weekly increase of 1.85%, the best week since May 19. The dollar fell 0.06% against the Swiss franc to 0.8 Swiss francs, the biggest since April 7.

The US dollar strengthened 0.19% against the yen to 144.65. The U.S. dollar/yen fell by 0.94%, the largest since May 19.

The inflation rate of core consumer in the Japanese capital region slowed sharply in June, mainly due to temporary cuts in public utility costs such as water and electricity, but the inflation level is still far higher than the 2% target set by the Bank of Japan, which still maintains expectations for further interest rate hikes in the future.

International News

The number of bankruptcies in Germany in the first half of this year reached a new high in ten years

The data recently released by the German credit reporting agency "Credit Reform" www.avaforexcn.company showed that in the first half of this year, the number of bankruptcies registered in Germany was 11,900, an increase of 9.4% from the same period last year, reaching the highest level in ten years. Patrick Ludwig Hanch, an economic expert at the agency, said that German www.avaforexcn.companies are facing multiple challenges such as weak demand, rising costs and uncertainty, and it is expected that the number of German www.avaforexcn.companies going bankrupt will continue to rise until the end of this year.

Trump's "big and beautiful" bill is only one step away from the Senate clearance of the Democratic Party's "drag" tactics and hard

Local time 6On the 28th of this month, the U.S. Senate passed a procedural motion with a vote of 51 to 49, aiming to advance a large-scale tax and expenditure bill called "big and American" by US President Trump. The possibility of bill passing in the next few days increases after the procedural vote of the U.S. Senate. It is reported that after the procedural motion is passed, the large-scale tax and expenditure bill will undergo reading, debate, amendment votes and final votes, which is expected to take several days. There is less than a week left before Trump's "deadline" on July 4. Not only did all members of the Democratic Party vote against it, but also adopted the word "drag". U.S. Senate Minority Leader Schumer said on the 28th that Democrats will force reading a 940-page bill in the Senate. The Capitol Hill reported that reading the bill would take 12 hours.

South Korea lifts the 14-year investment ban on "Kimchi Bonds" to improve foreign exchange liquidity

South Korea announced the cancellation of the 14-year ban on domestic institutional investment in "Kimchi Bonds", which aims to improve foreign exchange liquidity and alleviate the pressure on the depreciation of the Korean won. The Bank of South Korea said it will fully relax investment restrictions on foreign currency-denominated bonds (i.e., kimchi bonds) issued in the country from next week, allowing financial institutions engaged in foreign exchange-related businesses to freely purchase such bonds. The restriction began in 2011 when policymakers were concerned that excessive investment in foreign currency bonds in local currencies could push up short-term foreign debt. Due to possible regulatory loopholes, this policy adjustment still excludes private equity kimchi bonds. As the South Korean government seeks to stabilize the foreign exchange market and broaden domestic financing channels, this decision will also strengthen Seoul's position as a regional financial center.

The United States and G7 members will establish a "parallel" system to avoid a global tax war

The United States and other G7 members have signed an agreement aimed at avoiding a global tax war, proposing to establish a "parallel" system to protect U.S. www.avaforexcn.companies from certain provisions of the existing global agreement. As part of the agreement, U.S. officials agreed to remove the provisions in the Trump tax cut bill that would increase the taxes required to earn by non-U.S. www.avaforexcn.companies and individuals in the U.S. This Section 899 is also known as “retaliatory tax” because it only raises the tax rates for countries that are considered discriminatory tax policies by the U.S. government. The Group of Seven said in a statement on Saturday that this parallel system could "provide greater stability and certainty for the future international tax system."

The US virtual embassy in Iran urges U.S. citizens in Iran to evacuate

According to the US Fox News Network on June 28, the US virtual embassy in Iran issued an announcement on June 26 saying that as Iran reopened part of its airspace, it urged U.S. citizens in Iran to evacuate immediately. If you can't leave, you can find a safe place in your residence or other safe building, ensure that there are enough food, water, medicines and other essentials. The U.S. Virtual Embassy in Iran believes that the current situation in the region still poses significant risks. The U.S. State Department announced the opening of a virtual embassy in Iran on December 6, 2011 to promote understanding between the people of the two countries.

Yemen's Houthi armed forces said they would not stop attacking Israel

Yemen's Houthi armed forces spokesman Yehaiya Sareya issued a statement on June 28 saying that the Houthi armed forces fired a "Zolfikar" ballistic missile at a target located in Bershba, southern Israel, successfully achieving the target. In addition, the Houthi forces launched ballistic missiles and drones several times last week to strike Israeli targets located in Berkheba, Jaffa and Haifa. He said that the Houthi forces will not give up their support for the Palestinian people and will continue to operate until Israel stops aggression against the Gaza Strip and lifts the siege of Gaza. Earlier today, the IDF said it had monitored a missile from Yemen, and alerts sounded in many places in Israel, and the Israeli army said the missile was "very likely" to have been successfully intercepted.

South Korea calls for a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement with the United States

The new South Korean trade minister called for a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement with the United States during his first visit to Washington this week. During his visit to the United States, YeoHan-koo held talks with U.S. www.avaforexcn.commerce Secretary Lutnik, Trade Representative Greer, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and several lawmakers, and the relevant talks ended on Friday. According to a statement released by the South Korean Ministry of Trade on Saturday, Yeo introduced the policies of South Korea's new President Lee Jae-ming to US officials and reiterated his www.avaforexcn.commitment to reaching a mutually beneficial agreement. “The ongoing negotiations are not just about solving the tariff issue, but also an opportunity to establish a new framework for future cooperation,” Yeo said in a statement. "We will actively conduct consultations to ensure that the momentum of cooperation between the two countries will not be weakened by tariffs and turn the current crisis into opportunities."

Buffett donated Berkshire B shares worth $6 billion to five foundations

Berkshire Hathaway issued an announcement stating that today, Buffett converted 8,239 A shares into 12,358,500 B shares in order to donate 12,358,321 Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares to the five foundations: 943,3839 shares to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust, 943,384 shares to the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, and 660,366 shares to the Sherwood Foundation, Howard G. Buffett Foundation and Novo Foundation. The donations will be delivered on June 30. Buffett currently holds shares in Berkshire, including 198,117 A shares and 1,144 B shares. Based on the closing price of Berkshire B shares on Friday, Buffett's donation to the above five foundations reached US$6 billion. Since 2006, Buffett has donated to these five charities every year, and the value of the donation has increased year by year. After www.avaforexcn.completing this year's donation, the five foundations have accepted Buffet for 20 years.Special charitable donations are worth over US$60 billion.

Domestic News

The "Brain Intelligence World" in the country's first future brain-computer interface industrial cluster has started construction

On the morning of June 29, the Shanghai Brain www.avaforexcn.computer Interface Future Industrial Cluster Construction Promotion Conference was held at the Medical Technology Center of Shanghai Xinhongqiao International Medical Center. At the meeting, Minhang District, Lingang Group, Shangguotou www.avaforexcn.company and Huashan Hospital signed a co-construction agreement for the cluster area. Special policies to support the construction of brain-computer interface clusters have been released, Shanghai Key Laboratory for Clinical Trials and Transformation of Brain-computer Interfaces has been unveiled, Huashan Hospital Brain-computer Interface Clinical Trials and Transformation Innovation Consortium has been launched, the National Disruptive Technology Innovation www.avaforexcn.competition Brain-computer Interface Championship has officially started, Sinan Brain-computer Intelligent Super Incubator, Brain-computer Interface Concept Verification Platform, Brain-computer Interface Industry Alliance Yangtze River Delta Industrial Innovation Center and the first batch of enterprises have settled in, and the Brain-computer Interface Future Industry Fund Matrix has been released.

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